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<br />CDM <br /> <br />Section 8 <br />Integrate Resources and Modify Forecasts <br /> <br />In this section the projected demands are revised in to include conservation and the <br />benefits associated with conservation. The potential reduction in operation costs and <br />water right purchases are also discussed. <br /> <br />8.1 Revised Demand Forecast <br /> <br />The conservation measures and programs selected for implementation in Section 7.5, <br />are estimated to provide water savings ranging from 130 to 280 AFY over the <br />planning period. However, there is likely some overlap of water savings for various <br />programs. For instance, the savings acquired from public education, rebates, audits <br />and sod replacement on single family homes could be contributed to the combined <br />effects of all these programs and the savings may not be as high as indicated when <br />evaluated independently. Furthermore, the saving estimates assume that a certain <br />amount of rebates are distributed annually. Saving estimates could be significantly <br />lower, if the level of participation is not as high as assumed for this analysis. To <br />compensate for these factors, the total estimated annual savings has been reduced by <br />20 percent, providing an estimated water savings range of 100 to 220 AFY. <br /> <br />Table 8-1 shows the differences in daily demands with and without conservation. This <br />analysis indicates that conservation measures selected in this Plan may reduce <br />average day demands by 8 percent in 2010 and by 11 percent in 2015. It is uncertain <br />how the conservation measures/program will affect peak day demands. The <br />monitoring data, discussed in Section 9.2, may be useful in providing more accurate <br />estimations than presented in Table 8-1 at a later date. <br /> <br />Table 8-1 Modified Demand Forecast <br /> <br />Item 2005 2010 2015 <br />Average-day demand before 1,435 1,769 1,788 <br />conservation (1,000 gal/day) <br />Average-day demand after conservation 1,621 1,591 <br />Reduction in average-day demand 147 198 <br />(1,000 gal/day) <br />Maximum-day demand before 4,330 5,338 5,397 <br />conservation (1,000 gal/day) <br />Maximum-day demand after 4,896 4,804 <br />conservation (1,000 gal/day) <br />Reduction in maximum-day demand 442 593 <br />(1,000 gal/day) <br />Ratio maximum-day to average-day 3.0 3.0 3.0 <br />demand before conservation (1,000 <br />gal/day) <br />Ratio maximum-day to average-day 3.0 3.0 <br />demand after conservation (1,000 <br />gal/day) <br /> <br />*Assumed ratio maximum-day to average-day demand before and after <br />conservation is the same for before and after new conservation efforts. This ratio <br />was used to estimate peak day reductions with conservation. <br /> <br />8-1 <br /> <br />O:\Castle_Pines_North\Conservation Plan\Drafts Submitted For Review\Final Conservation Plan.doc <br />