2018-06-01_REVISION - C1980007 ‎(3)‎

• Permit No: C1980007
• IBM Index Class Name: Revision
• Doc Date: 6/1/2018
• Doc Name: Comment Forwarded To Applicant
• From: Shannon Hughes, Wild Earth Guardians
• To: DRMS
• Type & Sequence: PR15
• Email Name: LDS
• Media Type: D
• Archive: No

Figure 10: Probability Distribution of Weekly Total GVB Production Rate (scfm)
Name_ VV ek* Oramed Volumes � m L'v'
Lotion -505.9 J Mean 10,&% s[d_ Oev_ fi,540.8 :
Pso = Median, there is a
50 percent probability
that the weekly total GVB
production rate will be
9,125.0 scfm.
Pio = There is a 10
percent probability that
the weekly total GVB
production rate will be
greater than 18,815.9
scfm.
Peo = There is a 90
percent probability that
the weekly total GVB
production rate will be
greater than 4,294.6
scfm.
Results of CMM Destruction Economic Analysis
Once the economic model was set up, Monte Carlo simulations were run which incorporated the
probability distributions of carbon price and GVB weekly production. The outputs of a Monte Carlo
simulation are forecasts of Net Present Value (NPV) (Figure 11), Internal Rate of Return (IRR) (Figure 12)
and Return on Investment (ROI) (Figure 13), which also are probability distributions. These forecasts are
presented below and in Table 3.
16
Lognormal Distribution
a
a
EL
P1G=16,815.4
Mean = 10.656.6
Med is n = 9.125.0
Pso - a.zsa.s
D.0 10,000.0 20:000.0 30,000.0 40,000.0 50,000.0
Lotion -505.9 J Mean 10,&% s[d_ Oev_ fi,540.8 :
Pso = Median, there is a
50 percent probability
that the weekly total GVB
production rate will be
9,125.0 scfm.
Pio = There is a 10
percent probability that
the weekly total GVB
production rate will be
greater than 18,815.9
scfm.
Peo = There is a 90
percent probability that
the weekly total GVB
production rate will be
greater than 4,294.6
scfm.
Results of CMM Destruction Economic Analysis
Once the economic model was set up, Monte Carlo simulations were run which incorporated the
probability distributions of carbon price and GVB weekly production. The outputs of a Monte Carlo
simulation are forecasts of Net Present Value (NPV) (Figure 11), Internal Rate of Return (IRR) (Figure 12)
and Return on Investment (ROI) (Figure 13), which also are probability distributions. These forecasts are
presented below and in Table 3.
16