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Probability distribution functions were generated for carbon price (Figure 9) and GVB weekly production <br />(Figure 10) to capture the full range of possible values and their impact on uncertainty. The probability <br />distribution for carbon price was constructed using historical California (CARB) and Quebec joint auction <br />settlement prices and forecasts of future prices from published trading analytics <br />(http://californiacarbon.info/). <br />Figure 9: Probability Distribution for Carbon Sales Price <br />15 <br />pso = Median, there is a <br />50 percent probability <br />that the carbon sales <br />price will be $14.75 <br />Pio = There is a 10 <br />percent probability that <br />carbon sales price will be <br />$16.52 or greater. <br />p90 = There is a 90 <br />percent probability that <br />the carbon sales price <br />will be $13.48 or greater. <br />