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<br />federal land together with non-federal forest land was analyzed in the <br />Forest Linear Programming Model. The two models were correlated to <br />provide consistent range and water outputs. <br /> <br />The nonfederal range and cropland category, consisting of state, private <br />and municipal lands, required analysis mainly from the viewpoint of <br />short term planning on an annual basis, since land use can be altered <br />annually for most crops. In contrast, planning for forest lands (federal, <br />state and private) necessitates long range planning because of long <br />harvest rotations and to assure sustained yield management; whether the <br />crop is harvested in anyone particular year is not a critical concern. <br />In this case, a decade planning interval sufficed. With these basic <br />differences in mind, the overall future without condition, as well as <br />other plans formulation in Chapter VI I I, evolved around these two basic <br />elements. <br /> <br />1. State and Private Range and Cropland <br /> <br />Base year (1970-1972) acreages yields and production were <br />taken from Colorado Agricultural Statistics and the 1968 USDA <br />Conservation Needs Inventory. The figures were slightly <br />modified in some cases to more accurately reflect existing <br />conditions. Soil association cropping patterns and yield <br />data, developed by soil survey interpretations and estimates <br />of Soil Conservation Service personnel located in the basin, <br />were normalized using 1970-1972 Statistical Reporting Service <br />county data and the 1969 U. s. Census of Agriculture. <br /> <br />Future without alternative prices were held constant at 1974 <br />normal ized prices for all time periods. Projected crop, <br />pasture and range yields were developed using yield projection <br />indices. Projected acreages were developed by dividing pro- <br />Jected production by the projected yields. <br /> <br />In addition to these projection techniques, some basic assump- <br />tions regarding state and private non-forest lands were: <br /> <br />The continuation of land sales on platted developments, <br />subsequent construction and the human habitation will <br />bring commercial livestock grazing down to an Insignifi- <br />cant level on private range land. It will also eliminate <br />the use of about 85,000 acres (34,400 ha) of deer and elk <br />winter range. <br /> <br />The San Luis Valley Council of Governments' population <br />projection of 7,100 people by 2000 for South Fork is <br />correct. Associated development wi 11 string out along <br />the riverbottoms and main roads and will have serious <br />impacts on deer and elk migrations between summer and <br />winter range. <br /> <br />003426 <br /> <br />VI-2 <br />