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<br />,- <br /> <br />CHAPTER VI - FUTURE WITHOUT CONDITION <br /> <br />A. Definition and Purpose <br /> <br />The "future without" condition is that projected situation which best <br />represents conditions resulting from continuation of ongoing state and <br />federal programs in conjunction with private efforts. In essence it is <br />a descriptive plan displaying outputs and conditions resulting at some <br />future time from direction and effects of present functional plans and <br />active projects. <br /> <br />Included under functional plans would be such documents as timber <br />management plans for a national forest, state forest management plans <br />within the area, resource area management plans of federal agencies, and <br />state, local and private cooperative planning efforts for recreation, <br />wildlife, environment, etc. Active projects include those of any <br />federal, state or local agency, currently in progress, for which funds <br />have been appropriated; or for which construction has been authorized. <br />Projects included in this category are the Trinchera Watershed, Del <br />Norte Recreation measure, and the Closed Basin Division-San Luis Valley <br />Project Colorado. <br /> <br />One reason for establishing a future without condition is to set a base- <br />line to which other alternative plans of the basin can be compared. <br />This will be done in Chapter VIII. Yet another function of the future <br />without is to aid in determining and quantifying needs as developed in <br />Chapter VII. <br /> <br />Once projected national demands (OBERS, etc.) have been disaggregated to <br />the basin allocations, future without projections show whether or not <br />these allocations will be met under current directives and plans. <br />Comparing these projected allocations of Chapter V with projected <br />production under future wihtout reflects the needs, as they were derived <br />in Chapter VII. Formulation of alternative plans to meet those needs <br />not fulfilled by future without is the basis for Chapter VIII. It is <br />emphasized that their needs are based on OBERS allocations which are <br />meant as standards of comparison and not mandated demand goals. <br /> <br />B. Assumptions <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />Any projection is a conditional forecast of the future based upon stated <br />assumptions about factors that are expected to impact future conditions. <br />Projections, therefore, are only as valid as the assumptions upon which <br />they are based. <br /> <br />To facilitate the analysis, the land resources of the Rio Grande Basin <br />were divided into two aspects. State and private range and cropland <br />were analyzed with the Agriculture Linear Programming Model. All <br /> <br />003425 <br /> <br />VI-l <br />