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<br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />. . <br />The July I, 1997 forecast for April through July unregulated inflow to Lake Powell is 11.475 <br />maf, which is 148 percent of the 30-year average for the period 1961-1990. The inflow to Lake <br />Powell for the 1996-97 water year is expected to be 15.990 maf, or 136 percent of the 30-year <br />average. <br /> <br />The Lower Division states' estimated consumptive use of Colorado River water for calendar <br />year 1997, as estimated by Board staff, totals 8.462 maf and is projected as follows: Arizona, <br />2.971 maf; California, 5.226 maf; Nevada, 0.265 maf. Estimated additional unmeasured return flow <br />credits of 0.258 maf would reduce the total amount to 8.204 maf. For calendar year 1997, the <br />Central Arizona Project (CAP) is projected to divert 1.456 maf and The Metropolitan Water District <br />of Southern California (MWD) 1.246 maf. <br /> <br />The preliminary July I st estimate of the 1997 end-of-year California agricultural <br />consumptive use ofCo!orado River "later unde:- the fi"St three priorities of the 1931 Califomia Seven <br />Party Agreement is 3.921 maf. This estimate is based on the collective use through June 1997 by <br />the Palo Verde Irrigation District, the Yuma Project Reservation Division, the Imperial Irrigation <br />District (IID), and the Coachella Valley Water District. Figure I, found at the end of this report, <br />depicts the monthly forecasts of end-of-year agricultural use since the beginning of the year. <br /> <br />Colorado River Ooerations <br /> <br />Last month I reported that a meeting of the Colorado River Management Work Group was <br />planned for June 20, 1997, in Las Vegas, Nevada to review the draft 1998 Annual Operating Plan <br />for the Colorado River System Reservoirs (1998 AOP), and the various graphs that Reclamation <br />has generated in support of declaring a surplus. As a result of that meeting, Reclamation will prepare <br />another draft of the 1998 AOP. This draft will be made available fOI review prior to the consultation <br />meeting with the Basin states' representatives, which is scheduled to be held on July 29, 1997, in <br />Las Vegas, Nevada. As discussed during the June 20th meeting, it is anticipated that the draft 1998 <br />AOP will call for Lake Mead to be operated under a surplus declaration for both water users in the <br />United States and Mexico. Also, prior to the July 29th consultation meeting, Reclamation will <br />distribute a review draft of Secretary Babbitt's letter transmitting the 1998 AOP to the governors of <br />the seven Basin states. Included in the Board folder is a copy of liD's comment letter, dated June 19, <br />1997, (0 Rt:clamation. <br /> <br />With the above normal runoff that has occurred in 1997, and with the Colorado River System <br />reservoirs being nearly full, there is a high probability that flood control releases from Hoover Dam <br />at, or above, 28,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) will be required in 1998. Because flows in excess <br />'of 20,000 cfs below Parker Dam begin to cause flood damages in the lower part of the River, <br />Reclamation is considering making anticipatory flood control releases beginning this month to <br />evacuate some of the water in storage and thereby reduce the likelihood of making a large flood <br />control release in 1998. <br /> <br />Also, last month I discussed Reclamation's efforts to develop guidelines for declaring surplus <br />and shortage conditions on the River. Several different operating strategies have been run by <br />Reclamation to determine the impacts associated with each strategy. Those strategies were: flood <br /> <br />2 <br />