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. ~, Ullu ~~'l The results of these analyses are presented to aid the Front Range Project efforts, as well as to aid the Board's Citizens' Advisory Committee in their efforts and to inform the citizens of Denver and other interested parties, so that all discussions can be meaningfully related to a single set of competent factual data. METRO AREA POPULATION AND DEMAND PROJECTIONS The provision of adequate water service for a great metropolitan area requires the ability to make real~stic forecasts and sound plans based upon anticipation of events which are certain to occur many years in the future. Population projections upon which demand projections are being made by the Denver Watel" Department and others wi 11 be the corner stone for huge investments of capital and the huge expenditures of time required to bring into reality new water supply projects in this highly competitive arena. .J: I POPULATION PROJECTIONS f I ~I 'I I I A comparison of previous population projections made by consultants to the Denvel" Water Department, as well as by those opposing development of its projects, by DRCOG, and by the Colorado legislature shows that if project construction had been timed to meet those projections, severe and prolonged water service shortages would have developed long before this decade. The inescapable conclusion of that comparison is the necessity for prudent conservative water system planners to pl"ogl"am and schedule project development with a very considerable margin of safety. With this background, and because of the requirements for an orderly approach to water system planning, the Denver Water Department has employed experts in the planning field to forecast the anticipated population of the service areas in the upcoming decades. For such planning purposes, these forecasts are crucial because it has been the long term experience of water service providers generally that the only major factor in the demand formula is the change in population. As the population has increased, the demand for water has increased in an almost linear ratio. In attempting to al"rive at population projections for the anticipated growth in the metropolitan area, the DWD has utilized the census data provided by the Federally designated regional planning agency, the Denver Regional Council of Governments. It has been the DWD's experience that the population forecasts provided by DRCOG, although usually low, have been reasonably accurate. The only other population ?rojection figul"es available at this time are from either the Colorado Division of Planning, which gives a low, medium and high population figure, and the Front Range Project. -2-