WSP05559

• File Number: 8271.200
• Description: Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Program - Development and History - UCRB 13a Assessment
• Basin: Colorado Mainstem
• Water Division: 5
• Date: 6/27/1979
• Author: Glenn Morris
• Title: The Economic Impact of Synfuels Development in the Upper Colorado River Basin - Rough Draft
• Water Supply Pro - Doc Type: Report/Study

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,

The character of both the economic impact estimates and the measures of

water "income multipliers" are outlined below.

THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN ECONOMY - 1975 AND 2000

The results presented in this report are derived from a computer model of

UCRB Optimization Mode 1.1 This

UCRB

ec enomy ;

the

mode 1

is

an

the

input-output charac terization of the economy embedded in a linear programming
CL .
optimization routine. In order to operate this model/ldat,"'input is required

for each of the model's economic sectors; bounds on either the total gross

output (TGO). or the final demand (FD) must be specified.

In most sectors,

final demand is speci fied; that is, the do llar amount the particular sec tor

will "export" to the rest of the world 15 a model input.

In order to provide a background against which to inte lligent ly evalua te

the economic impact of EET development, two "reference" characterizations of

I.

the UCRB economy were made. These reference runs of the model involved using

estimates of 1975 and 2000 final demands as inputs into the model. The model

then generated estimates of 1975 and 2000 TGOs for each of the sectors as well

as simultaneously estimating the household income of the UCRB in those two

years.

The run of the model for 1975 (R75) provides a picture of the

contemporary economy of

2
the UCRB.

The run of the model for 2000 (ROO)

provides an estimate of the year 2000 UCRB economy without EET development.

lGlenn E. Morris, Energy Development and the Upper Colorado River Basin
Optimization Mode 1, (Los Alamos, New Mexico: Los Alamos Scient i fic Labora-
tory; May, 1978), LA-7261-MS, and Glenn E. Morris, An Optimization Model of
Energy Related Economic Development in the Upper Colorado River Basin Under
Conditions of Water and Energy Resource Scarcity, (Los Alamos, New Mexico:
Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory; March, 1977), LA-6732-T.
2The economy of the UCRB, as depicted in the UCRB Optimization Model,
is actually the aggregation of three regional economies; the Aggregated Sub-
Areas (ASAs) which comprise the Basin. In this initial section, reference
will continue to he made to lithe" Basin economy when, in fact, a much richer
characterization is provided by the model. A more complete description, in-
c luding a discussion of the three economic regions of the Basin, is presented
in Chapter II and continues throughout the report.