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<br />5.0 FUTURE WATER DEMANDS <br /> <br />As growth continues on the West Slope, the demand for reservoir water will increase. Increased demands <br />for municipal, industrial, and environmental uses are anticipated. Additionally, growth along the Front <br />Range will increase demands for out-of-basin water supplies_ <br /> <br />The actual location, amount and timing of demand is difficult to anticipate. However, we believe that it is <br />reasonable to expect the overall annual demand for contract water from facilities such as Green Mountain, <br />Ruedi or Wolford Mountain Reservoirs to increase by 15,000 to 20,000 acre feet, or more, within the next <br />50 years. An overview of these potential future demands occurs below. <br /> <br />5.1 MUNICIPAL DEMANDS <br /> <br />We have estimated the increase in municipai water use that may occur within the next fifty years. The <br />purpose of this assessment is to evaluate the potential amount and location of increased municipal <br />demands for reservoir water. The analysis of potential municipal demands is based on population <br />forecasts developed for the region, and upon historical water use of representative cities and of <br />representative water users within the basin. <br /> <br />5.1.1 Population Forecasts <br />Population estimates have been developed by the State Demographer's Office and by several local <br />governments within the study area. These estimates have been reviewed and utilized to develop <br />population forecasts for the study area. <br /> <br />In December of 1994, the State of Colorado Demographer's Office published infonnation regarding recent <br />growth trends and anticipated future growth for each county within the Slate. The projections were <br />developed for a 25 year periOd extending to the year 2020. The State Demographer has estimated that <br />the recent accelerated growth trend on the West Slope will not continue. The Demographer's projections <br />are that growth rates will decrease immediately and will continue to decrease through 2020. For example, <br />it is estimated that Eagle County's population has grown by about 5.5 percent per year from 1990 to 1995. <br />The Demographer's Office estimates that Eagle County growth rates will decline to about 3.2% through <br />the year 2000, and will further decline to about 1.7% by the year 2020. <br /> <br />Additional population forecasts have been developed for the Mesa County area in an October 1995 report <br />for the Ute Water Conservancy District. These population forecasts identify six potential growth scenarios <br />for Mesa County. We have incorporated these projections in this study. <br /> <br />Prediction of future growth is difficult and uncertain. Based on recentlrends, we believe that it is possible <br />that the State of Colorado's estimates may underestimate growth on the West Slope. For purposes of this <br />study, we have utilized three growth scenarios to predict population increases through the next 50 years. <br />All three scenarios are based on State Demographer population estimates, and upon local county and city <br />estimates where available. <br /> <br />13 <br />