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Scenario 1 assumes that growth will be less than the State Demographer's estimates. In this scenario, the rate of growth declines more rapidly than projected by the State. The most conservative Mesa County growth scenario is used. Scenario 2 coincides with the State of Colorado estimates. The State estimates are developed through 2020 only. We have assumed that the projected growth rates for the period 2020 to 2045 will be similar to projected growth from 2010 to 2020 (about 1.5% to 1.7% per year). A moderate growth scenario for Mesa County is used. Many local agencies believe that the State's growth projections may be conservative and that more rapid growth may occur, particularly in the short-term. Scenario 3 is based on continued, accelerated growth through the year 2000. Instead of assuming declining growth rates as early as 1995, this scenario assumes that the recent accelerated growth trends continue for another 5 years. After this time, growth rates are assumed to decline according to State estimates. In this scenario, moderate Mesa County growth projections are utilized. The growth estimates for each of the three scenarios are summarized in Table 5.1. In addition, the State Demographer estimates are illustrated in Figure 5.1. Current population within the study area is estimated to be about 204,000. By the year 2020, popUlation in the region is estimated to increase to between 304,000 and 378,000 people, depending upon the growth scenario. By the year 2045, the region's population is projected to be between 424,000 and 620,000. FIGURE 5.1 POPULATION ESTIMATES BASED ON STATE DEMOGRAPHER PROJECTIONS (SCENARIO 2) 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 o .1995 02020 02045 Eagle River Roaring Fork River Colorado River above Dotsero Colorado River below Dotsero Total Study Area 14