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<br />. <br /> <br />3. World market prices for enerey products generally prevail <br />and increase slightly in real terms. <br /> <br />o <br />-.J <br />l\j <br />U1 <br /> <br />These assumptions are characterized by FEA's market clearing <br /> <br />fuel prices ($13/barrel Reference Case) through 1985 and <br />the price trajectories presented in Table II.2. <br /> <br />4. Economic growth continues at general Iv normal rates. <br /> <br />Gross National Product (consumption) in billions of <br />1971 dollars begins at a base of 1634.6 (1047.7) in <br /> <br />1985 and grows at an average annual rate of 3.56% (3.78%) <br /> <br />from 1985-1990 and 3.53% (3.71%) from 1990-2000. Over <br /> <br />the period 1985-2000, productivity increases at a rate <br /> <br />of 1.8% per year while non-monetary inflation averages <br />slightly below 4.9% per year; <br /> <br />5. No constraints on imported fuels; <br /> <br />6. 1975 environmental standards remain essential Iv unchap.ecd: <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />7. ~onstraints on. domestic fuel supplies (in 1015 BTU) are: <br /> <br />Domestic Oil <br /> <br />1985 <br />29.4 <br />22.7 <br />12.0 <br />20.0 <br /> <br />1990 <br />29.2 <br />22.4 <br />19.5 <br /> <br />2000 <br />22.0 <br />17.5 <br />39.0 <br />44.0 <br /> <br />Domestic Natural Gas <br /> <br />Uranium <br /> <br />Coal <br /> <br />30.0 <br /> <br />8. Electric utility heat rates continue their downward <br />trend while system caoacity factors return to early <br /> <br />1970 values: <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />9. Energy mix is selected from a multi-obiective analysis <br /> <br /> <br />involving total system cost, capital costs, oil usage <br /> <br /> <br />and imports, and environmental considerations. <br /> <br />A numerical and graphical summary of the ERDA Forecast 2 energy <br />future is contained in Tables 11.3-1I.6 and Figures 11.1-11.3. <br />-4- <br />