WSP04587

• File Number: 8271.200
• Description: Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Program - Development and History - UCRB 13a Assessment
• Basin: Colorado Mainstem
• Water Division: 5
• Date: 11/3/1977
• Title: Review of Initial Energy Supply and Demand Data Provided by Federal Agencies for Use in the WRC 13a Assessments
• Water Supply Pro - Doc Type: Report/Study

'* 6. Assumptions used in the ERDA Forecast 2 Scenario are (as extracted
from the draft report):

.

11.1. The Basic Premises for Forecast 2 Case Identification

A detailed description of the as:;umptive frameHork in which

~ ERDA's planning, analysis, and evaluation is performed appears in
-..J
~ Reference 6. In this sub-section, we abstract from that report
~

the foundational considerations which serve to identify Forecast 2.

These include:

1. A moderate success ra te for new energy technolo g ie s.

ERDA has developed a success prof~le for a selected set
of new energy technologies. These profiles (one for each

technology) contain an early, medium term, and late entry

date (year) for commercialization and low, medium, and

high upper bounds on commercial operation. The ERDA Fore-

.

cast 2 scenario pairs the medium entry date and medium

development profiles (See Appendix I and Reference 6, pp.

-0;

14-37) ;

.

2. Moderate energy conservation.

ERDA has established a strawman ". k
Wea Conservation" energy
demand schedule wh h
ic assumes that conservation POlicies
are not enacted and that .
energy pr~ce elasticities are
.only marginally operat;ve. Th F Z f
~ e orecast inal energy
demands result from price induced demand
curtailments
(~RI/BNL price elasticities are fully operative) and
policy induced end-use efficiency improvements. The

Forecast 2 end-use energy demand reductions (and associated
resource-supply-savings) relative to the "Weak Conservation"
schedule result in the d'
me lum conservation schedule de-

picted in Table 11.1;

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