WSP04587

• File Number: 8271.200
• Description: Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Program - Development and History - UCRB 13a Assessment
• Basin: Colorado Mainstem
• Water Division: 5
• Date: 11/3/1977
• Title: Review of Initial Energy Supply and Demand Data Provided by Federal Agencies for Use in the WRC 13a Assessments
• Water Supply Pro - Doc Type: Report/Study

o
.~ As indicated, the results reported in the previous sub-section
rv
. refer to the October 18, 1976 version of the forecast--a version
"hich was not finalized when relased to WRC for this study. The

II.2. The Current Version of Forecast 2 for 2000

current version of the forecast for the year 2000 contains significant

differences when compared to its predecessor. The major deviations

in the current version (see Figure II.4) relative to the earlier

forecast are explained by:

1. Greater resource savings due to price and/or policy

induced end-use efficiency improvements;

2. Increased waste heat utilization;

3. Greater market penetration of total energy systems;
4. Lower aggregate electricity demand;
5. More oil and less electricity going to residential and

commercial space heat;

.

6.' Less coal liquid and. gaseous synthetics;

7.~ Slightly more (less) coal fired (nuclear) capacity;

8. More oil imports;

9. More oil shale production;

10. Lower total coal production.
In view of these changes and ignoring the time constraints
imposed by the WRC study requirements, a logical question arises

concerning the continued use of the earlier version of Forecast 2

as part of the 1975 National Assessment. In response to this
question, it is suggested that the October 1976 scenario offers
a more analytically interesting energy future with respett to

potential water impacts than does the newer version. The rationale

for this statement results from an examination of the differences

. enumerated above. The lesser amounts of "efficiency improvement"
conservation, waste heat utilization, and penetration of total

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