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<br /> <br />......., ~ <br /> <br />Economic Growth <br /> <br />The rate of national economic growth used in the study has two important <br />effects: <br /> <br />o As a major component in the determination of domestic demand <br />for agricultural products. <br /> <br />o As a determinant of the volume of economic activity in the Region. <br /> <br />The economic growth scenario used in the INFORUM projections which <br />govern the state and regional I/O models and the NIRAP demand estimates shows <br />a moderate rate of growth. like agricultural exports and productivity <br />increases, the estimates of national economic growth fall between the trend <br />from the end of '"rorld War II to 1970, and that observed in the 1970's. Real <br />gross national product is expected to increase 3.3 percent per year from 1979 <br />to 1985, 2.4 percent per year from 1985 to 1990, and 2.0 percent per year <br />thereafter. A breakthrough in economic growth is always possible, but <br />seems unlikely based upon current experience in mature industrial societies <br />constrained by the increasing scarcity of fuel and raw materials. Similarly, <br />a prolonged period of zero growth or depression (negative growth) is possi- <br />ble, but should be prevented by political and economic adjustments. More <br />important for the results of the High Plains study, the crucial measures <br />of economic impact are just that. measures of impact, or the difference <br />between key economic variables for different water management strategies. <br />Changes in the level of national economic growth will strongly affect the <br />volume of the regional economy and the absolute size of these indicators; <br />however, because a consistent national growth scenario is used for all <br />management strategies, the relative differences in regional economic <br />indicators resulting from water-related changes in agricultural prOduction <br />should not be affected. <br /> <br />~uch more important to the study results is the effect of national <br />economic growth on the demand for agricultural products. Population is the <br />other component (in addition to economic growth) in determining domestic <br />demand food. The projected 2020 U.S. population of approximately 280 <br /> <br />A.33 <br />