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<br />million is consistent with current fertility trends which are well <br />established in all western industrial democracies and seem unlikely to <br />change. <br /> <br />Changes in real per capita incomes resulting from economic growth do <br />strongly affect food demand, particularly the demand for meat, which in turn <br />determines the demand for feed grains grown on the High Plains. The economic <br />growth projections provided from INFORUM for use in the NIRAP model are con- <br />servative and constitute a "most likely" scenario for the U.S. economy over <br />the next forty years. If growth is more rapid than expected, we could expect <br />increased demand for meat to drive up feed grain prices above the levels used <br />in the anlaysis. If the economy stagnates completely, real crop prices would <br />increase more slowly than projected, unless there were a compensating reduc- <br />tion in agricultural productivity. <br /> <br />Although crop prices are determined by a combination of foreign (export) <br />and domestic demand, these effects are combined in the agricultural prices <br />provided for the LP farm enterprise models. Figures 12 and 13 show the <br />trends in real crop prices from 1958 to 1978, and the crop price increases <br />projected by NIRAP for use in the High Plains study. The projections <br />moderate large year to year variations resulting from weather related <br />production shifts or sharp increases in export demand. The projected <br />long-term trend is for slow growth in crop prices below the actual 1958-78 <br />increase. <br /> <br />The reduction in crop prices of 19-28 percent* in 2020 produced by the <br />"low export" scenario could also have resulted from lower domestic demand <br />coupled with a level of exports between the "low export" scenario and that <br />used in the actual analysis. Depressed domestic demand for food and <br />restricted food exports could result in no increase in real crop price. <br />Several states tested the LP models using lower crop prices. A typical <br />result is shown for Oklahoma in the Baseline case, with estimates of <br />constant real prices. <br /> <br />* Original projection for 2020, four major crops vs. the 2020 projections <br />for a "low export" scenario. <br /> <br />A-34 <br />