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The most elusive of these three variables is trade policy. Export pro- jections used in the study assume relatively free trade in agricultural commodities, with no politically induced embargoes of agricultural exports to a major U.S. customer. The other two factors influencing export demand are likely to be more predictable and stable. Some real growth in per capita income throughout the world is a reasonable expectation. Even if the less developed countries limit their need for food imports by restricting population growth and expanding agricultural production the export demand for U.S. products would not be greatly effected, because only a limited portion of export demand used in NIRAP projections is expected to come from these countries. The indus- trialized countries (including the Soviet Union) which are now major impor- ters of agricultural products are not expected to achieve agricultural breakthroughs which would eliminate the need for imports. There is no question that U.S. prices for the crops grown on the High Plains are heavily influenced by the export market. To test the sensitivity of prices to export demand, the NIRAP model was run assuming a growth in exports equal to the long-term (1950-79) trend line for each commodity. The resulting prices (in 1977 dollars) are shown below: Crop Price in High Plains Study 2000 2020 Corn (per bu.) Wheat (per bu.) Cotton* (per bale) Grain Sorghum (per bu.) Soybeans (per bu.) 2.76 3.12 271.10 2.48 6.37 2.89 3.40 279.65 2.60 7.05 * ADL estimates - not from NIRAP model Low Export Growth Scenario Price Projections 2000 2020 2.41 2.78 227.44 2.17 5.26 2.25 2.76 227.44 2.03 5.09 A-32