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<br />. Fish and wildlife (USDI)-Estimate instream flow requirements for each ASA and <br />identify and describe the environmental effects on fish and wildlife of implementa- <br />tion of the central-case future conditions. Evaluate the current status of stream <br />classification for fishery and wildlife values. <br /> <br />Agency Responsible: Indicated in description above. <br /> <br />Phase IV. Allalysis of Variations from the Central Case <br /> <br />Actillity One: Project Variations from Central-Case Conditions. (November 1974-May <br />]975) Sensitivity analyses will be performed on variations from the central case for the <br />fOllowing alternative-condition assumptions. <br /> <br />~ <br /> <br />.'; <br /> <br />. Coal gasification-liquefaction, and oil shale derelopment (USDI)-Estimates will <br />be made for selected ASA's of the water required by intensified levels of oil <br />shale and coal gasification-liquefaction development sufficient to achieve energy <br />self-sufficiency. <br /> <br />. Increased agricultural exports (USDA with USDI)-Export levels greater than <br />those contained in the OBERS Series E report will be projected nationally on the <br />basis of possible increases in foreign demand and allocated to each ASA. Water <br />requirements resulting from increased exports will be estimated for irrigation - ....--... <br />use in each ASA. <br /> <br />. Patterns of land use for agriculture (USDA)-For both the central case and in- <br />creased agriculture export assumptions, the effect on agriculture water and land <br />use requirements of deviations from the continuation of historical agricultural <br />land use trends-minimum cost agriculture production and maximum land and <br />environmental conservation-will be estimated for each ASA. Alternative levels <br />of erosion, drainage and wet soil acreages corresponding to these alternative <br />patterns of land use will be estimated. <br /> <br />. Full del'elopment of resources on Indian reserllations (USDI)-For ] 985 and <br />2000, estimates will be. made for selected ASA's of the increases in consumptive <br />and withdrawal water requirements which would result from full development of <br />resources on Indian reservations. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />Improlled irrigation water use efficiency (USDA with USDI)-Estimates of poten- <br />tial water savings available from increased irrigation efficiency will be developed <br />for selected ASA's for the central-case trendline land use projections, with the <br />results of this analysis also applied to the other agricultural production and land <br />use alternatives. <br /> <br />) <br /> <br />.. <br />, <br /> <br />. Water use price-cost sensitillities (WRC staff)- The percent and absolute reductions <br />in volumetric water use that can occur with given increases in water price and cur- <br />rent water-saving technology costs will be estimated. The changes in navigation <br />and recreation water use that can occur with given increases in user charges will <br />be estimated for ASA's or groups of ASA's, as appropriate. <br /> <br />18 <br />