WSP01787

• File Number: 8200.766
• Description: Gunnison River General
• State: CO
• Basin: Gunnison
• Water Division: 4
• Date: 2/1/1971
• Author: Corps of Engineers
• Title: Paonia Reservoir - Muddy Creek-Colorado - Report on Reservoir Regulation for Flood Control
• Water Supply Pro - Doc Type: Report/Study

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0010:5

course; and 'the-basin Precipitation is indexed by only one precipitation
station. The McClure Pass snow courS<!! is in the central part of the
basin near the eastern boundary at 9,500 feet elevation. Chart 3, gives_
the location and the description of this snow course, and parauraph 4 -
gives the snow data. The precipitation station is at the tovn of Paonia
about 15 mUes downstream from the 'dam. Chart 3 gives the location and
description of the station and paragraph 4 gives the precipitation data.

Forecast equations have been prepared by the US Bureau of Recll1l12t1on
for forecasts of runoff above Paonia Dam. These correlation equations
are based on snow course measurements at McClure Pass and precipitation
amounts at the town of Paonia, Colorado. Followi~ are the Paonia Res-
ervoir forecasting data (for inflow to 30 June):

Mu'ch 1 Forecast of Aprll-June Inflow:

(

Y (1,000 a.f.) = -36.83 + 13.08X1 + 4.48X2

Xl-= Oct-Dee precipitation at tovn of Paonia.

~ = Mu'ch 1 snow \lB.ter content at McClure Pass.

n = 15
R =.70
S = 28,150
!oBx l-in-lO error = :1:46,300 a. f.

April 1 Forecast of Aprll-June Inflow:

Y (1,000 a.f.) = -30.53 + 8.67Xl + 4.77X2

Xl = Oct-Dee precipitation at town of Paonia.

X2 = April 1 snow lISter content at McClure Pass.

n = 15
R = .81
S = 23,036
!oBx l-in-l0 error = :1:37,900 a.f.

~

!-By 1 Forecast of !-By-June Inflow:

Y (1,000 a.f.) = _36.61 + 13.09X1 + 1.9lX2 + .29X3

Xl = Oct-Dee precipitation at town of Paonia.

~ = Jan-).Br precipitation at town of Paon1a.

X3 = April precipitation at tovn of Paonia.

X4 = ).By 1 snow _ter content at McClure Pass.

n = 15
R .86
5 = 17, 4ro
I-Ux 1-in-IO error = *28,700 a.f.

+ 4. 48X
4

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