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<br />~ <br /> <br />- <br /> <br />,. <br /> <br />( <br /> <br />( <br /> <br />n02016 <br /> <br />June 1 Forl!cast of Junt!! Inflov: <br /> <br />Y (1,000 a.f.) = -11.17 + 0.644XI + 1.590X2 + 1.445X3 + 1.792X4 <br /> <br />Xl = Oct-Dec precipitation at town of Paonia. <br /> <br />X2 = Jan-MBr precipitation at town of Paonia. <br /> <br />X3 = Apr-May precipitation at town of Paonia. <br /> <br />X4 = May 1 snow water content at McClUl'l! Pass. <br /> <br />n = 15 <br />R = 0.75 <br />S = 10,250 <br />Max 1-in-1O l!rror = %17,000 a.f. <br /> <br />The forecasted mean runoff into Paonia Rt!!Bt!!rvoir as obtained :!'ran thl! abovt!! <br />t!!quations and as subst!!quently ust!!d for OJ)t!!ration of Paonia Rt!!servoir by the <br />ust!! of the flood control regulations given in Appendix A, is l!xpl!cted to <br />be l!xcet!!ded 5 times in 10 Yt!!ars. A forecast of tht!! least probablt!! 8IIlOunt <br />of water available to fill the reservoir can be obtained by subtracting <br />the 1-in_1O error from thl! forecasted mean runoff. Likl!wisl!, the forecast- <br />ed maximum can be determinied by adding the 1-in-l0 error to the forecasted <br />mean runoff, and is defint!!d as that inflov vhich is expl!cted to be l!xceeded <br />only once in 10 years. By definition, thl! f01"l!cast is expl!cted to be ex- <br />cet!!ded 9 times in 10 years. <br /> <br />20a <br />