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<br />00043:' <br /> <br />REVIEW COPY, <br />SUBJECT TO REVISION <br /> <br />Voluntary Conservation to Reduce Annual Water Withdrawals from the Oltallala Aquifer <br /> <br />For this case, it was estimated that irrigation farm managers would be able to <br />increase water use efficiency through increased investments in water saving equipment, <br />improved soil moisture monitoring, improved irrigation scheduling, increased adoption <br />of water efficie~cy improving technology, increased irrigation application efficiency, <br />and perhaps the use of other water conservation techniques to reduce the quantity of <br />irrigation water applied per acre without reducing crop yields. The projected results <br />in 2020 compared to the Baseline Case are as follows: <br /> <br />1. Agricultural production: <br />Very small increases (3.5 percent) in value of farm production in relation <br />to that of the Baseline Case, with northern subregional increases greater <br />than those in the southern part of the area; <br />Returns to land, water, and management increase slightly (1.6 percent) <br />because of reduced pumping costs; <br />Relatively small change in water use in most states because farmers are <br />expected to adopt most water saving technologies without added incentive <br />programs. <br /> <br />2. Remaining ground water supplies and irrigated acreages: <br />. Irrigated acreage by 2020 is 0.94 million acres (5 percent) greater than <br />irrigated acreage of the Baseline Case. <br /> <br />The quantity of water remaining in storage was reduced slightly (0.1 <br />percent) because improved water use efficiency would provide an economic <br />incentive to keep about 100 thousand acres in irrigation that would have <br />been returned to dryland production in the Baseline Case. <br /> <br />3. Regional economy: <br />A relatively small increase (0.9 percent) in regional value added in compari- <br />son to the Baseline Case; <br />Regional Value Added for the voluntary conservation case is increased by <br />$366 million (0.9 percent) in 2000, and $451 million (1.0%) in 2020; <br />Regional employment would be increased 1.1 percent, or 14,000 employees, <br />by 2020 over the Baseline Case employment projection. <br /> <br />In order to increase water conservation, reasonably priced capital for long-term <br />investments in conservation equipment will have to be available to farmers. In addition, <br />it will have to be profitable to remain in irrigation farming, a condition which is <br />marginal in the early 1980's. <br /> <br />Mandatory Conservation to Reduce Annual Water Withdrawals from the Oltallala Aquifer <br /> <br />In this "mandatory water conservation" case, the appropriate production, farm <br />management and aquifer data developed for the other cases were used. However, it <br />was assumed that the quantity of water that could be withdrawn for use in anyone <br />production season would be arbitrarily limited to a percent of the quantity estimated <br />to be withdrawn in the voluntary conservation case. For this analysis it was assumed <br />that the quantity of water available for use in 1985 would be limited to 90 percent <br />of that which would have been used in the voluntary conservation case; the quantity <br /> <br />-6- <br />