WSPC07505

• File Number: 8040.950
• Description: Section D General Studies - General Water Studies
• State: CO
• Basin: Statewide
• Date: 4/30/1982
• Title: High Plains Study - Six-State High Plains Study Recommendations - With Response
• Water Supply Pro - Doc Type: Report/Study

OOJ431

REVIEW COpy
SUBJECT TO REVISION

projected to decline thereafter, losing about 28,000 in population between 2000 and
2020. After 2000, growth in the North is projected to increase by approximately 37,000
for the period 2000 to 2020.
The Region has an estimated per capita income of about $5,800 in 1977, increasing
to $12,660 by 2020.
State and local government revenues are estimated to rise more rapidly for the
entire Region thb.n population because of projected growth in real incomes and output.
G.onstant growth in govern ment revenue is projected for the northern portion of the
Ogallala Region. However, a different trend is projected for the South. Taxes paid
by the oil and gas industry are a significant portion of government revenue in the
Ogallala portion of the three southem states. For the southern part of the Region,
State and local government revenues are projected to increase by 73 percent from 1977
to, 1990, then are expected to fall by 44 percent from 1990 to 2020 as the result of
the projected decline in the quantities of oil and gas produced after 1990.

Crop Production Estimates

Production of the six major crops grown in the High Plains region-wheat, corn,
grain sorghum, soybeans, alfalfa, and cotton-is projected to increase between 1977 and
2020. Wheat production is projected to increase by almost 45 percent, grain sorghums
by more than 60 percent, com and cotton by slightly more than 100 percent, and
soybeans by more than 1,060 percent by 2020. The major High Plains crops constitute
a ,significant part of total national agricultural commodity supplies-and thereby contri-
bute significantly to nationwide prices of these commodities-13 percent of com pro-
duction, 16 percent of wheat, 25 percent of cotton, and 39 percent of grain sorghum.
c:om production is projected to increase by almost 150 percent in the North due to
projected growth in acreage and production in Nebraska, but will decline in Kansas,
Texas, and Colorado. Both grain and cotton are among the nation's major agricultural
exports.

Water Resource Estimates

The estimated quantity of water in storage in the Ogallala Aquifer within the
study area in 1977 was 3.01 billion acre-feet, of which 2.6 percent was in COlorado,
8.1 percent was in Kansas, 77.5 percent was in Nebraska, 0.8 percent was in New
Mexico, 2.0 percent was in Oklahoma, and 9.4 percent was in Texas. During the
1977-2020 projection period, for the Baseline Case, it is estimated that 23 percent of
total water in storage in the study area in 1977 will have been used. However, in all
states except Nebraska and Kansas, more than 50 percent of the quantity of water in
storage in 1977 will have been used by 2020. Nearly two-thirds of the Texas supply
is estimated to be used during the projection period.

Alternatives to the Baseline Case

In this section, the results of analyses using (1) increased voluntary conservation
of Ogallala water, (2) mandatory conservation of Ogallala water, and (3) voluntary
conservation of Ogallala water combined with imported water will be presented and
compared with those of the Baseline Case. The conservation cases were selected to
show potential effects of reduced annual withdrawals of water from the Ogallala aquifer
~on prOduction, employment, income, taxes, and the quantity of water remaining in
storage at the end of the projection period.

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