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OJJ430 , , REVIEW COPY SUBJECT TO REVISION production volume between 1977 and 2020. Wheat production rises slightly and soybean production rises from a rather small volume in 1977 to a regionally significant crop in 2020. The total value of production from both irrigated and dryland crops for the study area increases from approximately $4.6 billion in 1977 to $11.5 billion in 2020. About 68 percent of total production value is from irrigated land. The near doubling in the value of production between 1977 and 2020 for the study area is the combined effect of slightly higher crop prices, increases in yield per acre, and additional land brought into production. The amount of land under cultivation in the study area is projected to increase from 32.6 million acres in 1977 to 36.7 million acres in 2020. Most of this increase is projected to occur in Nebraska, where the aquifer is thickest. Estimated returns to land, water, and management increase from $1.05 billion in 1977 to $4.91 billion in 2020. The proportions of returns accounted for by irrigated production are 46 percent and 60 percent for 1977 and 2020, respectively. For the six-state study area, the annual volume of irrigation water applied declines slightly between 1977 and 2020 for the Baseline-Gase analysis. The decline is not uniform over all six states: Nebraska projects an increase in use of about double, while the remaining states show declines - modest for Colorado, New Mexico, and Oklahoma, and sizeable for Kansas and Texas. R€!(ional Economic Impacts Agricultural production projected in the baseline analyses affects business, value added (regional product), employment, household income, per capita income, and govern- ment revenues of the regional economy. Value added is projected to increase over the study period from about $21.5 billion in 1977 to more than $49.2 billion in 2020. The southern Ogallala subregion (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) is somewhat less dependent upon the primary agricultural sectors than is the northern subregion (Colorado, Kansas, and Nebraska) since the energy sectors are significantly larger in the south. Value added in energy sectors is projected to decline from $12.2 billion in 1990 to $4.4 billion in 2020. From a peak of 51 percent of the southern subregion's value added in 1990, energy production would account for an estimated 15 percent by 2020. Agriculture related economic activities in the High Plains regional economy account for 20 to 30 percent of total regional value added, the projected growth in these sectors (led by production increases in the northern half of the region) tend to drive the overall growth of the economy. Regional employment is projected to increase throughout the study period from a base of about one million jobs in 1977 to almost 1.35 million by 2020. Growth in regional employment is strongest during the earlier (pre-2000) periOds and levels off thereafter. This is related mainly to nonagricultural employment in the southern three states, especially employment within the energy sectors. Total household incomes are projected to increase by nearly 200 percent by 2020 under Baseline conditions, with a slightly lower growth rate in the northern subregion (172 percent) and slightly higher rate in the south (211 percent). Regional population is projected to increase from 2.2 million in 1977 to 2.9 million by 2020. The southern three states start from an estimated population base of 1.3 million in 1977, about 58 percent of total regional population, and grow to nearly 1.8 million by 2020, a 41 percent growth. Population growth trends (projections) in the South are expected to differ significantly from the North. Having almost a 40 percent projected growth by the year 2000 (an increase of 500 thousand people), the South is -4-