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<br />OOi1429 <br /> <br />REVIEW COPY <br />SUBJECT TO REVISION <br /> <br />extent of the local, state, and national economic and social benefits derived from the <br />energy and wate' resources of the High Plains Ogallala area, and to compute estimates <br />of the costs of importing water to the area, for the purpose of providing a basis for <br />developing oolutions to the problems of declining supplies of water and energy resources. <br /> <br />A Summary of Study Results <br /> <br />The principal results of the study are presented for: (1) Energy, (2) Agriculture, <br />(3) Regional economic effects, and (4) Water Importation cost estimates. Estimates <br />were made for: (1) A Baseline Case, in which it is assumed that there will be no <br />cl]anges in laws within each respective state that would affect the use of ground water <br />and that the adoption of more efficient technology will occur as it becomes available; <br />(2) Alternative water conservation cases, and (3) A case in which sufficient quantities <br />of water would be imported to maintain irrigated acreage in each respective sta te at <br />the 1977 level. Projections are expressed in 1977 dollars. <br /> <br />Baseline Case Projections <br /> <br />Estimates were made of production, employment, and water use in the High Plains <br />economy for the Baseline Case as defined above. <br /> <br />Energy <br /> <br />Crode oil production and natural gas production are projected to decline by 80 <br />percent in the period for 1980 to 2020. <br />Electric power production is projected to increase almost 400 percent by 2020. <br />The primary fuel is expected to be coal. <br />Employment and income from energy production in the six-state area are projected <br />to almost double by 2000, but are expected to decline to one-half of the present by <br />2020. <br />Water use by energy industries is projected to increase about 77 percent by 2000, <br />and then decline about 8 percent by 2020. In the early years of the projection periOd, <br />electric power production uses about half of the water used in energy production, but <br />by 2020, this use increases to nearly 95 percent of water needed for energy industries <br />in the area. <br /> <br />AltI'iculture <br /> <br />Data about water conservation technologies, crop yield trends, and expected <br />improvements in plant breeding were obtained from agricultural scientists and leading <br />farmers in the area. Crop prices and production costs were obtained from analyses <br />of national and international markets for agricultural commodities. ' <br />For the Baseline Case in the six states, the total production of foodstuffs, feed <br />grains, and fiber in the Ogallala region increases over the study period for the following <br />reasons: (1) improvement in crop yields per unit of inputs, (2) new land developed <br />into irrigated crop production (primarily conversion of rangeland into irrigated cropland <br />in Nebraska), and (3) a more efficient (yield per unit of input) use of irrigation water. <br />Com and cotton, historically the region's major crops, are projected to double in <br /> <br />-3- <br />