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(")"7'lll J t V L" In the same volume of the study, Wilbur Smith and As- sociates make three numerical projections of Colorado popula- tion. They incorporate different assumptions about rates of in-migration and natural increase as outlined below: Projection No. 1 extends the 1910-1970 average annual compound rate of growth through 1990, under the assumption that historical rates of in-migration < 'n' lIo t.ural increase will remain constant in the next twenty years. Projection No. 2 extends the 1960-1970 Colorado in- migration rate and the 1965-1970 Colorado rate of natural in- crease through 1990, under the assumption that these more current rates will hold valid in the next two decades. Projection No. 3 extends the 1960-1970 United States rate of immigration and the 1965-1970 Colorado rate of natur- al increase through 1990, under the assumption that net Colo- rado in-migration will taper off to the national average. (4) Reqional Transportation District. In December of 1971, the Regional Transportation District released that por- tion of its interim report entitled aSocio-economic Projec- tions". The report was prepared for the RTD by Development Research Associates, Inc./Wallace, McHarg, Roberts and Todd, Inc. The areas for which population projections were pre- pared are the Denver SMSA and the RTD Study Area (the latter consisting of Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Denver, Douglas, Jef- ferson, and portions of Weld and Larimer Counties). The RTD study assumes that the rate of natural increase will rise from its present level (around 1%) only gradually between 1970 and 2000. The increase in the birth rate which would ordinarily be expected from the in-migration of large numbers of young persons and young families is expected to be substantially offset by increasingly widespread and effective methods of family planning and birth control. The level of in-migration between 1970 and 1990 is ex- pected to remain at the same level as between 1960 and 1970, ":ue to a continued high level of Denver area employment oppor- tunities, the popularity of the Denver area as a living en- vironment, and Denver's role as the collection point of rural to urban migration from the mountains and northern plains. After 1990, however, in-migration rates are expected to drop due to an increase in the urban character of the Denver area and the resultant decrease in its attractiveness as a living environment. -4-