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<br />002736 <br /> <br /> <br />meteorological correlations were not very good. Summers: Also, he evaluated <br /> <br /> <br />only the first two years of operations in Southern Utah--the State was not <br /> <br /> <br />funding the program at this time, only the local Counties. <br /> <br /> <br />Kahan: Did the retired SCS man announce ahead of time what statistical <br /> <br /> <br />test he would employ? Summers: Not really, he used the historical snow course <br /> <br /> <br />correlation procedure to find the stations with the best correlation, then per- <br /> <br /> <br />formed his control/target statistical tests to the 3-year periods. Dennis: <br /> <br /> <br />Fiddling with the data after the fact is not valid, Juggling a sample destroys <br /> <br /> <br />all predictive value by making it impossible to generalize beyond the sample at <br /> <br /> <br />hand. Kahan: What he did is roughly a Fourier analysis--where you fit the <br /> <br /> <br />data to a series, but there is no predictive value of the data outside your <br /> <br /> <br />sample. Dennis: Do you have a statistician in your department? Summers: Our <br /> <br /> <br />technical advisory committee includes a statistician from the University of <br /> <br /> <br />Utah. We have contracted with another statistician and he has gone over the <br /> <br /> <br />analyses and has concluded that the findings are not statistically significant., <br /> <br /> <br />Valantine: Does the proposed project in the Unita Basin include any <br /> <br /> <br />wilderness area? Summers: Yes, but we have not had any difficulty with the <br /> <br /> <br />Forest Service as yet. Also, no ground generators are on forest land. Kahan: <br /> <br /> <br />We may have some problems with the present Forest Service Policy memorandum-- <br /> <br /> <br />although there is no visible impact in the wilderness areas from cloud seeding, <br /> <br /> <br />the artificial impact from weather modification may be taken by some as valida- <br /> <br /> <br />ting the Wilderness Act. Morrill: \ole have gotten permits from the Washington <br /> <br /> <br />Office of the U. S. Forest Service instead of going to each regional office, <br /> <br /> <br />Kahan: The present Forest Service position is to go along with research on a <br /> <br /> <br />short-term basis, but long-term operations are a different matter when stor- <br /> <br /> <br />aging water on the wilderness lands. Summers: Almost all of our ground <br /> <br /> <br />generators are on private land in all our programs. Keyes: What took place <br /> <br /> <br />at the Utah meeting with the Forest Service? Summers: We are able to place <br /> <br /> <br />stream gaging stations in the wilderness areas for 10 years to develop cor- <br /> <br /> <br />relations with outside the area stations, then we would have to remove them. <br /> <br /> <br />Kahan: The main purpose of the meeting was to provide a dialogue on weather <br /> <br /> <br />modification with the Forest Service. They were probably trying to develop <br /> <br /> <br />a position statement for their use in their region. Most of the Forest Service, <br /> <br /> <br />with the exception of the environmentalists, supports the Sisk \oIilderness Bill. <br /> <br />r <br />f <br />. <br />" <br />, <br />~ <br />~ <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />37 <br />