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<br />l " " . <br /> <br />002883 <br /> <br />Current and future demand from the forest assumes the existence of a waferwood <br />market. A range of possible aspen demands from none to 32 MMBF (8.00) MMCF <br />were reviewed. Evidence (inventory data, private land supply, etc.) indicates <br />that if the Forest were to provide less than 50 percent of the aspen, the new <br />industry may move from the area. However, it is unreasonable to expect that <br />the Forest would be providing all the local area waferwood demand or 100%, so <br />the 90% (7.2 MMCF) level was chosen. (See Appendix B, Timber Resource Demand <br />Analysis) . <br /> <br />Current personal use fuelwood demand is 1.740 MMCF per year. Data on personal <br />use fuelwood harvests exist only from 1984 to 1986. A steady downward trend in <br />the annual harvest of personal use fuelwood has occurred over that period. A <br />possible reason for the trend is a plentiful and cheap supply of commercial <br />fuelwood available to local residents. Local residents can purchase the wood <br />cheaper than they can go out and cut it on the Forest. <br /> <br />Based upon the previous discussion the total current demand for wood fiber from <br />the National Forest is 12.96 million cubic feet (54.3 MMBF), excluding <br />fuelwood. <br /> <br />Currently, volumes of conifer sawtimber, aspen sawtimber, non waferwood conifer <br />POL, and waferwood POL are used to calculate long-term sustained yield and the <br />Forest's allowable sale quantity (ASQ). Personal use fuelwood is not included; <br />it is an incidental product of forest management activities. Appendix B to <br />this AMS provides more detail on the timber demand analysis. Some additional <br />conclusions regarding timber demand from the appendix are: <br /> <br />-Forest harvest levels are not very sensitive to local cost factors. <br /> <br />-Cut and Sold Reports represent the best measure of Forest demand because <br />they are from transaction evidence records. <br /> <br />-The Forest cannot predict Forest demand, and how local private timber <br />supplies will respond to changes in prices. <br /> <br />-The Forest cannot predict how Forest demand will respond to changes in <br />National timber prices and interest rates. <br /> <br />-The Forest cannot predict the upper limit of timber price at which local <br />industry would cease to operate. <br /> <br />Future Demand Trends <br /> <br />Current demand was projected into the future. Factors which were used in <br />development of the Forest's future demand for timber included: <br />-mill capacity <br />-past harvest levels <br />-species substitution <br />-nature of the local markets and local milling facilities <br />-Uncut Volume currently under contract. <br /> <br />16 <br />