WSPC02316

• File Number: 8408
• Description: Platte River Basin-River Basin General Correspondence
• State: CO
• Basin: South Platte
• Water Division: 1
• Date: 1/1/1974
• Author: David E Monarchi
• Title: Front Range Unit Feasibility Study-Colorado Population Trends-Volume 3 Number 3 Summer 1974-Regional and County Estimates 1970-1980
• Water Supply Pro - Doc Type: Publication

general, this alternative might be viewed as one in which
the State consolidates the growth that it experienced dur-
ing the first parr of the decade, expanding only minimally
during the test of the petiod.
The medium series shows agriculture increasing at
600 persons per year, mineral extraction increasing by 900
per year, and construction by 1,000 per year. The un-
employment rate is assumed to remain at 3.4 percent
thtough 1978 at which point it will drop down to 3.3
percent. This series is intended to be a moderate forecast
in which the construction industry declines to 75,000 in
1974, and in which the agricultural and mineral extraction
estimates fot 1974 ate those supplied by the Colotado
Division of Employment. The growth in the three in-
dustries amounts to 2,500 jobs per year which is a steady,
if modest, gain. The unemployment rate is estimated to
decline in 1979 in recognition of the fact that under this
alternative the economy of the State is recovering from
the potential slowdown in 1974 and is gtadually moving
ahead.
The high series assumes agriculture will be increasing
by 900 pet yeat beginning in 1974, minetal exttaaion by
1,400 pet yeat, and construction by 3,000 per year. This
series projects that construction will decline to 76,000
in 1974, and that employment that year in the agriculture
and mineral extraction industries will be slightly greater
than those forecast by the Colorado Division of Employ-
ment. In this series there is a substantial annual growth
in mineral extraction in recognition of potential increases
in the energy fields. Agriculture - increases substantially in
recognition of the increased worldwide demand, and con-
struction is increasing at a rate of 3,000 per year. The
unemployment rate declines from 3.5 percent in 1974
to 3.4 percent in 1975, to 3.3 percent in 1976, and finally
to 3.2 percent in 1978, an indication of the increasing
growth of the economy occurring in the latter part of the
decade. The three industries together account for 5,300
jobs per year, which represents a substantial increase on an
annual basis. However, although this is called the high
series, the alternative does not take into account the possi-
bility of sudden, extreme expansion in contract construc-
tion on the order of the tens of thousands of jobs such
as has been observed in the last few years, nor in the po_
tential "explosion" of the mineral extraction industry.
One of the merits of a simulation model is its ability
to explore flexibly alternate paths and changes in altern-
atives as they become of interest. The high series is prob~
ably a reasonable upper limit on growth, excluding sig~
nificanr impacts. However, the possibility of such impacts
cannot be ruled out. and while it would be difficult to
explore all possible time patterns of impacts in the three
specified industries, it nevertheless seems interesting to
examine at least one such impact. Consequently, a sub-
alternative of the high series called the impact series has
been created. This subalternative is identical with the high
series with the following exceptions: there were no
changes made from 1974 to 1977; in 1978 a growth of
10,000 employees in the contract construction industry
(as opposed to 3,000 in the high series) is assumed; and
the unemployment rate in 1978 is assumed to drop to
3.0 percent instead of 3.2 percent in the high series. Con-

tract construction then is assumed to increase at 3,000
per yeat as before and the unemployment rate in 1979 and
1980 is 3.2 percent as in the high series. No changes were
made to the agriculnue industry or the mineral extraction
industry.
Obviously, many other alternatives could be postu-
lated, such as a new "Vietnam" in the Middle East. Al-
though nOt exhaustive, these alternatives provide a spread
of possibilities for the future. The advantage of a simula-
tion is that if an individual or group desired to explore
the possibility of a sequence of events in which, say, the
mineral extraction industries grew by 10,000 in 1977 and
15,000 in 1978, rhis possibility could be readily examined
with this model. A final note with regard to the selection
of alternatives should be that the choice of alternatives to
be modeled is in part determined by the variables in the
model. For example, an assumed change in the income
structure of the State and any attendant demographic im~
pacts could not be examined within the structure of the
model as it now exists because these concepts are not in-
cluded in it.
The alternate futures developed for the 13 planning
regions were created by allocating employment in the
three specified industries in the State alternatives. The
allocation was based on a shift-share ~ technique which
sought to take into account the likely proportionate changes
in employment for the three industries: agriculture, min-
eral extraction, and contract construction. The regional un-
employment rates were created for each series by sub-
tracting or adding to the annual regional rate the same
increase or decrease that was assumed to occur at the
State level.

RESULTS OF THE STATE SIMULATIONS
The alternatives described above were simulated for
Colorado using the CPE model on an annual basis for
1970-1980. The data used in all the alternatives was the
same for the years 1970-1973. Population and employment
results from the model ate always as of July 1 of the year
in question. Table 1 shows in capsule form the results of
the simulation.
The alternative future entitled "low" is a somewhat
pessimistic view of events to come. Agriculture grows at
a very slow rate; mineral extraction also at a slow rate;
construction is assumed to drop in 1974 to a low level of
74,000; the unemployment rate will remain at a fairly
high level of 3.4 percent. A population growth of 483,244
is projected for the decade under this series; but over
half is estimated to have ocrurred up through 1973. Cor-
responding to the moderate population growth, employ~
ment has been estimated to grow only 258,394 over the
decade, and mOSt of the growth occurred during the first
three years of the period. The model indicates that under
the assumptions for this series, 1974 would show a net
increase of only 5,000 new jobs over 1973, and the annual
increase would then go up to between 10,000 and 20,000
a year for the rest of the decade.
In the medium series of projections the total growth
in population during the decade is approximately 100,000
greater than in the low series, increasing from 2,224,529 in
1970, to 2,804,467 in 1980. As before, most of the growth

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