WSPC02316

• File Number: 8408
• Description: Platte River Basin-River Basin General Correspondence
• State: CO
• Basin: South Platte
• Water Division: 1
• Date: 1/1/1974
• Author: David E Monarchi
• Title: Front Range Unit Feasibility Study-Colorado Population Trends-Volume 3 Number 3 Summer 1974-Regional and County Estimates 1970-1980
• Water Supply Pro - Doc Type: Publication

occurs from 1970 to 1973. However, there is a sustained
growth during the rest of the decade of approximately
42,000 a year, Employment under this alternative increases
rapidly during the years 1970,1973 (about 55,000 an-
nually), and then increases at a more moderate rate of
approximately 21,000 per year, The total growth in em-
ployment in the decade is 310,449, increasing from
888,600 in 1970, ro 1,199,049 in 1980.
The high series of population and employment pro-
jections indicates a sustained level of population growth
tapering off slightly in the period 1973-1980 from earlier
increases. The model forecasts an average change for the
1970-1973 period of about 95,000 per year and an an-
nual increase in 1973-1980 of about 70,000. The rotal
growth over the decade is 773,951, increasing from
2,224,529 in 1970 ro 2,998,480 in 1980. Employment in
1980 is 1,302,520, representing an increase of about 35,500
annually from 1973. The average growrh over the decade
is 41,000.
The impact series shows a substantial growth in
population in rhe year of the increase (1978). The
change from 1977 to 1978 is 128,043, bur in the high
series the corresponding change is only 70,100, a dif-
ference of about 58,000. In the impact series the change
from 1978 to 1979 is 112,204 and in rhe high series it
is 93,179 for a difference of 19,025. Bur in 1980 the
change from 1979 in the impact series was 75,830, which
is slightly less than the change shown in the high series
of 76,837. Thus, the overall impact of the sudden increase
in employment in construction has been a substantial
growth in the year in which it occurs followed by a rapid
tapering off of that impact. So, the model indicates that
given a sudden impact of increased employment there
would be a corresponding sudden impact in population
which would dissipate itself fairly rapidly. After that
time the model would continue with a larger socia-econom-
ic system, but at roughly the same rate of growth (other
things being equal) that existed prior to this impact. It
should be noted, however, that a series of such impacts
following one upon another would likely have an effect
which is geometric rather than additive, as the pyra-
miding might cause a more rapid growth than would be
expecred by simply adding together such impacts by
themselves.
In the absence of any major impacts, it appears that
the State will go through a stabilization period after the
rather pronounced growth from 1970 to 1973. This petiod
of consolidation should give a respite during which any
problems associated with growth may be examined and
explored so that remedial action can be taken (if neces-
sary). The population in 1980 seems unlikely to be less
than 2,700,000 with an attendant employment of ap-
proximately 1,145,000. And, barring significant events, it

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Colorado Population Trends is publiShed
quarterly {Winter, Spring, Summer, FalD
by the Business Research Division, Uni-
versity of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado
80302. Second-class postage paid at
Boulder, Colorado.

seems unlikely that the population will exceed 3,000,000
in 1980, with an attendant employment of approximately
1,300,000. In either case, there will be a significant ink
crease in the proportion of the populace aged 65 and
older. The increase in the 25- to 64-year-old age group is
dependent, in part, upon the amount of growth that takes
place during the rest of the decade and the amount of
net employment. related migration which occurs, The size
of the 0-24 age group is also related to the amount of
migration which takes place, but in addition, is related
to the fertility rates which prevail during this period.. Con~
tinued decline in fertility rates could result in further
shrinkage of this age group.

RESULTS OF THE REGIONAL SIMULATIONS
The results of these simulations are also shown in
Table 1. As a vehicle for discussing the results, it is use.
ful to examine the figures to see if any patterns emerge.
In doing so, it appears rhat Regions 3, 4, 10, and 11 all
have similar characteristics in the estimated patterns of
growth from 1973 onward. In these regions there is a
continued upward trend with a more pronounced up-
swing in Regions 10 and 11 due to the tentatively as-
sumed impact of energy development in those areas. It
should also be noted thar the patterns of growth for Colo-
rado shown earlier are similar to those for these four
regions.
The figures for Regions 2 and 12 show patterns of
growth which represent a tapering off after the changes
which have occurred from 1971 to 1973. Region 2 has
experienced rather remarkable growth during the period
and it appears unlikely that the rate of growth can be
sustained without significant new impacts in that area.
Similarly, Region 12 has also grown substantially from
1971 to 1973 and it appears that a tapering off is quite
likely for this area.
Another group of similar regions is essentially a rural
group composed of Regions 1, 5, 6, 7, and 9. In these
regions the low series of population growth shows es-
sentially a horizontal line from 1973 onward, indicating
a possible zero population growth even though the cor-
responding employment line does continue to trend up-
ward from 1973. In general, these regions exhibit an up-
ward trend for the high series of projections, indicating
that continued growth is certainly still a possibility.
Region 8 is somewhat unique in terms of the esti-
mates prepared by the model. The low series shows a
substantial possible decline in population during the rest
of the decade and even the medium series shows a slight
decline from 1973 levels. The high series showed only
a slight increase from 1973 onward, indicating that per-
haps in this region there may be significant declines in
population. This region's estimates also showed signi-
ficant employment declines on the low series, although
in the medium series the level of employment continued
to rise even though the population appeared to stabilize.
Finally, Region 13 is also somewhat of a maverick
region. The low series for this region shows a slight de~
cline, while the medium series continues an upward trend.
This would be slightly different from the pattern in Re'
gion 8 and different from, of course, the other groups

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