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<br />ploymem miwation. school a.ce population. ere. Tht. re-
<br />Elional population estimates were allocated to the coumie~
<br />within each reJ:!ion usin,g a mech:tnism b.a<oed on a serie~
<br />of line-ar equations These equation~ related the chan,ce in
<br />a county's share of lhe regional population 10 a surro,cate
<br />time vuiable. The annual CSlimated coumy prol'orriom
<br />within e:lch region were the.-n a~regated and nurmaJiuxl
<br />to one, Tht. actual count}' t'stlmales were Jto\'elup<:J b)
<br />multiplring the.-o;e proportion~ br the re,l:ional population
<br />estimates in e;!ch ;!~t'. r;1(e. and StoX (oho[(
<br />
<br />FOUR ALTERNATIVES
<br />The eVents of the laSt t"..o rears have demonsltJted
<br />quite co",'incin~I}' the uncertainty of the future.- Com(;.
<br />queml)", it ,.cems prudent to make prolecflons under ;1
<br />,'arief}' of assumptions in an auempt to define a "likcJr
<br />nnge" for the estima!es, Although anr set of alternati\h
<br />de,'e1oped will netes.\arily bot- incomplete, i! tan ~ horcd
<br />that the range prm'ided will he a reasonable 'iCt 01 fi~\Ites
<br />to use for pIannin.c purposes in the absenct. of sl.cnificJnt
<br />events.
<br />The uncertJinry uf the futuw C.in he O)ll(ra,~!txl With
<br />the uncertainty of the past. Tht. un(erum~' of the ra\T
<br />in relationship to this rt'S(.';lrch is in te.-rms (,f Ihe accur..I(Y
<br />of the data and the relatiollShips within dll; model as
<br />representati\'(~ of ({.rt;lin social prou:sses The llIKert.linllt's
<br />of the fUIUn', on the other h.lnd. mclude the unteruim)
<br />with respect to the struCfUfe of the mwel Jnd, in .Iddirion.
<br />include the uncert.lint}. of not knowing "whJt will harr'l;n
<br />^s a conse;:quence of Ihese uncertainCles, four Jltc'rna.
<br />
<br />ti\'es were finally de\'eloped, Ther Jrc labeled the low.
<br />medium. hi.ch. and imrau senes Ilf proje([ions. The al.
<br />ternativ{-s were dt'si,entxl for th{- Stare and then all(\ca(~d
<br />tl) thto ret:ioos for Ul>t' in tht. re,cional simuIatinns so lhat
<br />a de,crce of comparability W3.S maintained,
<br />The ~lmlllation model contains enough fJexihilir}" to
<br />rro\'iJe for an almost endll"is storil"i of alternatives. St;)
<br />rhJt one.- of the rroblems is (0 establish a small '>Cr of
<br />them which would pflwide a ran,1:to of resulls Ihar mi~ht
<br />~ inretrrf:tetl as reasonabk' The .1lternatives de\'e1oped
<br />in the rC1'oearch each consist of 3. se<juence of assumed
<br />.Innual employment ii,cures f('lf thc' agriculf1.m'. minc'ral
<br />~xrracti()n. ;md (llntrJCl construction industtj~s. tn,cether
<br />with a sc:-qut'nce of assumed unemployment r3.tes.
<br />In the low sene,. the Jj.:riculrute Industry in lht
<br />S{ar~ is ;L,sumed to m(TC'3S~ by onl~' ~oo emrloyce~ f'<'r
<br />~~.It tf<lffi l'f"'l Ihn>ll"h (1)N) Emp!"~ml:llt In thc' mlntra!
<br />exrranlon industry is .l.S~umed to Increase byiOO persom
<br />per rear durzng this period. The.- WostrUtllOn mduslr}' is
<br />.I~~umtoJ to in(fe.-a'>(.' b~ unJ~ ')00 l'CrS<llh I't't year Jltt'r
<br />dl...:lining to 7"1.000 in 19-.1. The unemplO)'melll r;lle re.
<br />mJIOS relativdy hi~h. dechnlll}:. from an t'stimateJ 3.5
<br />percent In 19,.j to:;.'\ percent It)r the reM 01 rhe decade,
<br />This sc:>ries is J mildly pessimistic series III which the COll-
<br />struction Industrr h.lS dedlflt'<l ill 197-1 and recon.rs
<br />slowly throughout the rest of the' Jecade. The.- agriculrurt.
<br />and mlOeral extr.lnion IOduslry estim.llb for 19-"1 are
<br />slightly lo\\'t'f than fho,< surrhed oy tilt. Color.lda DiviSion
<br />of Emplo}"ffient and grow slowly Jurmg tht, perKJJ. In
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