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~ >, VOLUME 3, NUMBER 3, SUMMER 1974 DIVISION OF PLANNING ,"-n-c '-.. . 1C Cf t/[O OCT 23 1974 COLO. WATER CONSERVATION BOARD COLORADO POPU LA TION TRENDS Regional and County Estimates-1970 to 1980 DAVID E. MONARCH! INTRODUCTION Society is becoming increasingly complex and its goals more interrelated and conflicting. As a result, there is an increased need for careful planning based on accurate data and objective and explicit predictive mechanisms rath- er than human intuition alone in order to attain, insofar as possible, these competing aspirations. The planning process is of critical importance in both the public and private sectors because it often results in the commitment of large sums of money for extended periods of time. Thus, it seems imperative that those involved in the plan- ning process utilize analytical techniques to the greatest extent possible to provide estimates and projections that, tempered with judgment and reflection, can provide vital information for that process. The research described in this issue is a result of the importance that the Colorado Division of Planning attaches to the development of such population and employment estimates for the State and its 13 planning regions. (A complete discussion of the research and results is contained in Colorado Regional and County Population Estimatas-1970 to 1980: Methods and Results, July 1974.) COLORADO PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT REGIONS The 13 planning and management regions for Colo. rado are shown on the map on the following page. In this map the heavy lines indicate the planning regions and the dash (.u) lines indicate the counties within the regions. Also shown for each county is the county seat. The number of counties within each region varies from two in Region 2 to eight in Region 3. The planning regions follow exist- Dr. David Monarchi is Assistant Professor of Manage. ment Science and Assistant Director of the Business Research Division, College of Business and Administra- tion, University of Colorado. ing county boundaries but, subject to that limitation, are intended to be relatively homogeneous, both geographi- cally and economically. Regions 2, 3, and 4, are the prin- cipal metropolitan regions in the State. Regions 1, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 are essentially rural regions with farming as the pdncipal activity, although the type of farming and crops varies among the regions. Region 11 is an area of potential economic impact from the oil shale develop- ment that may take place on the Western Slope. Region 10, by its proximity to Region 11, may share in growth from that development. In the past, Region 12 has been an intensive winter recreation area containing most of the major ski areas within the State. It, tOO, may receive some derived growth from any oil shale development. Region 13 is a high country area whose principal activity is mineral extraction. METHODOLOGY During the past year, the projected population and employment growth of the State and each of the 13 plan- ning regions was simulated under a variety of alternative hypotheses about the future fot 1974 to 1980. The re- gional population projections were then allocated to the counties within each region. The annual projections were made using the previous. ly developed Colorado Population and Employment model, which was extensively revised during this year's research. In all, 14 versions of the model were created, one for the State and for each planning region. The models were all parameterized to take into account, insofar as possible, the unique characteristics of each study area. In addition, an attempt was made to "interlock" the areas through the use of an employment commuting factor across regional lines. The model provided annual estimates of population by age, race, and sex cohorts and employment by nine major industry classifications. Certain other information was extracted from the model, such as births, deaths, eID- 0781