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1/26/2010 10:10:10 AM
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Title
Mathematical Modeling of a Sociological and Hydrologic Decision System
Date
6/1/1978
Prepared By
Institute for Social Science Research on Natural Resources, Utah State Univ.
Floodplain - Doc Type
Educational/Technical/Reference Information
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<br />people choose to do. Individual elemenls are nol evi- <br />dent, and many combinations of elements may come <br />together at anyone poinl in time 10 affecl each other. <br />Sociological measurement has been entirely too gross <br />to measure these conditions. It is probable that some <br />subtle factors are stronger than others and function <br />as gatekeepers and regulators, or provide Ihe means <br />for predicting behavior, or cause an ordering of actions <br />when the gatekeepers combine with olher elemenls. <br />In the process of developing the steps and elements <br />into a functional model, some mechanisms were dis- <br />covered to mathematize and standardize some of these <br />causal interactional behavior factors in ways Ihal add <br />to the conceptual refinement of element measurement. <br />ment. <br /> <br />From the slandpoint of sociological theory, the <br />sociological decision system in Ihis model has both <br />slructural and interaclional elemenls briefly outlined <br />as follows: <br /> <br />A. Struclural elements of the system: <br />1. There are numerous organized systems <br />that are interacting in the total process <br />as subsyslems as well as the public <br />which functions as a general system in <br />terms of normative behavior and in re- <br />lation 10 rating activily. <br />2. The conceptual model has several sub- <br />parts and a feedback system. <br />a. The model has six stages in a linear <br />flow system. <br />b. The social structures within each <br />stage are arranged in a logical se. <br />quence in relation to the process. <br /> <br />B. Inleraction elements of Ihe syslem: <br />I. The people impact the system with <br />their own subjective values which be- <br />come effect factors. These factors are <br />pari of the individual's behavior sys- <br />lem, but may also become group be- <br />havior patterns when many have an at- <br />titude in common. <br />2. Several basic elements are introduced <br />into the model as implementing mech- <br />anisms. These effect factors Ihat can <br />be mathematically modeled for simu- <br />lation and sensitivity analysis purposes <br />are: <br />3. Distortion Factors, which account <br />for the difference between percep- <br />tion and reality. <br />b. Imporlance Faclors, which input <br />the degree of importance or strength <br />of feeling of those invoived. <br />c. Acceptance Functions, a judgment <br />decision of the worth of a specific <br />characteristic of a proposal. An im- <br />portance Faclor combined with an <br /> <br />important characteristic of a pro- <br />posal results in an Acceplance Func- <br />tion. <br />d. Expansion Effect, where interest or <br />concern moves from a latent state <br />reflecting low concern or unimpor- <br />tance to a slate of high importance <br />and action. <br />e. Threshold Level, the level of con- <br />cern necessary to trigger the expan- <br />sion effecl specified as a minimum <br />level of the Acceptance Function. <br /> <br />These interaction elements require subjective val- <br />ue involvement of the participants in the syslem. <br /> <br />The concepts outlined are necessary 1.0 under- <br />stand t..'>e conception of the tolal decision process. <br />They function in the model as implemenling elements. <br />They are connectors at important junctures in the pro- <br />cess. They provide explanatory values for subjeclive <br />causalities that have not been accounted for before. <br />The concepts are defined and discussed in relation 10 <br />how Ihey work in the modeling scheme. <br /> <br />Importance Factors <br /> <br />An "Imporlance Faclor" (IF) is the degree of <br />importance placed on a characteristic or feature of a <br />proposed flood control program. The model reacts <br />to Importance Faclors for the seven Iypes of impor- <br />tant considerations or variables discussed earlier; <br />flood control ability, cost, aesthetics, recreation, <br />ecology, acceptance by other agencies, and acceptance <br />by relevant populations. The imporlance of a given <br />variable depends on the characteristics of Ihe group <br />reacting to Ihe fiood control program. <br /> <br />Different groups may have different inlerpreta- <br />tions of the importance associated with these variables. <br />For example, some agencies may feel aesthetic or <br />recreational values have secondary importance when <br />compared with others such as flood control or eco- <br />nomic considerations. If the attitudes of the public <br />are important to a decision-making agency, the agen- <br />cy can be greatly influenced by public senliment. <br />The reaction, however, depends on the influence and <br />power of the public group involved. If an agency <br />chooses to ignore the desires of a public group, then <br />feedback can result in further public resistance and <br />the agency is staking ils success on the strength of its <br />position as opposed 10 the degree of importance the <br />action has for the public involved. <br /> <br />The differences in the ways groups place values <br />on Ihe major variables are conceptualized as differ- <br />ences in the Importance Factor scores used in the mod~ <br />el as multipliers. The numerical value of each IF fac- <br />tor can range from zero upward. The maximum value <br /> <br />51 <br />
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