My WebLink
|
Help
|
About
|
Sign Out
Home
Browse
Search
FLOOD09697
CWCB
>
Floodplain Documents
>
Backfile
>
9001-10000
>
FLOOD09697
Metadata
Thumbnails
Annotations
Entry Properties
Last modified
1/26/2010 10:10:10 AM
Creation date
10/5/2006 4:34:01 AM
Metadata
Fields
Template:
Floodplain Documents
County
Statewide
Community
Nationwide
Basin
Statewide
Title
Mathematical Modeling of a Sociological and Hydrologic Decision System
Date
6/1/1978
Prepared By
Institute for Social Science Research on Natural Resources, Utah State Univ.
Floodplain - Doc Type
Educational/Technical/Reference Information
There are no annotations on this page.
Document management portal powered by Laserfiche WebLink 9 © 1998-2015
Laserfiche.
All rights reserved.
/
185
PDF
Print
Pages to print
Enter page numbers and/or page ranges separated by commas. For example, 1,3,5-12.
After downloading, print the document using a PDF reader (e.g. Adobe Reader).
Show annotations
View images
View plain text
<br />affected by public opinion as was true for the agency <br />in this example. <br /> <br />This is also an example both of how the system <br />is dynamic and of the reciprocal influence of some <br />parts of Ihe system upon others. In this case, public <br />opinion was of little or no imporlance in the evalua- <br />tions of the initial plan and of the first evaluation of <br />this plan by Ihe decision agency. In fact, the public <br />attitude was a latent factor until the decision was made <br />public. However, after announcement of the plan, the <br />aesthetic inlerests of people in the area became threat- <br />ened which motivated them to respond and a segment <br />of public opinion became strongly negative, moved to <br />aClion, and thereby influenced the agency to rejecl <br />the plan. <br /> <br />Section Five: The Final Decision <br />and A1lernative Actions <br /> <br />If the opposition is ineffective or nonexistent <br />then a final acceptance decision can be made. If, how- <br />ever, Section Four of the model, Public Reaclion, in- <br />dicates that Ihe opposition to a particular action is <br />successful, other alternative actions or potential solu- <br />tions are considered in a search for acceptable solutions. <br />Alternative actions are assumed to be introduced one <br />at a time in lhis conceptualization. This is a simplifi- <br />cation, but multiple proposal can be considered se- <br />quentially; so this not a serious limitation. This pro- <br />cess continues until either one of the proposed actions <br />is found acceptable in Section Four and the model is <br />thus able to move to the implementation section <br />(Section Six) or no additional actions remain for con- <br />sideration. <br /> <br />In the case where no acceptable solutions are <br />found, the process would either slop or begin again <br />from Section One using any changes which may have <br />occurred in the initial or starting conditions. As <br />Indicated by Figure 4.1, a similar return 10 Seclion <br />One can occur at the end of the initial decision stage <br />(Section Three) if no action plans had been developed <br />which were satisfactory 10 the decision agency. <br /> <br />Seclion Six: Implementation <br />of the Action Plan <br /> <br />Following project approval, Ihe last stage is im- <br />plementation of the plan. This lasl stage of the mod- <br />el also indicates the effects of the social decisions <br />upon both the hydrologic syslem and Ihe public. The <br />physical effecls would relale to Ihe watershed and ils <br />drainage characteristics by allering the hydrologic <br />parameters. The effects of these modifc.tions to the <br />hydrologic syslem are examined through operation of <br />the hydrolgoic ccmponent of the model. If the pro- <br />jecl is satisf.clory, it will end the currenl problem. As <br />this information dissemin.tes to the public, the pub- <br /> <br />lie perception of a need fer flood control represented <br />in the firsl slage of the model will change, and Ihe <br />public will not consider further aclion necessary. <br /> <br />At this point, one sequence of steps will have <br />ended. However, the hydrologic system is continually <br />functioning, and evenls can occur which will cause <br />problems for the public and again place pressure on <br />the agencies. In addition other social factors and the <br />desires of flood control agencies for achieving their <br />mission objectives will cause additional proposals to <br />be made, and Ihe process outlined by the flow chart <br />in Figure 4.1 will occur again. The process continues <br />indefinitely. <br /> <br />The Decision Process and Some Important <br />Theoretical Concepts <br /> <br />The linear regression analysis method was used <br />to mathematically model the six.stage process. The <br />method assumes additivity of relationships and linear- <br />ity of terms. This last assumption, however, does not <br />preclude some other interactions which are vital in <br />understanding this process. <br /> <br />Social Theorelical Aspecls of Modeling <br />the Decision Process <br /> <br />In addition to the linearity assumption, there <br />are certain underlying assumptions on sociological <br />structural development which are made in modeling <br />the decision system. Certain causal elements are as- <br />sumed to underly a "structural-interactional system. II <br />These would affect the main system as well as its sub- <br />systems. <br /> <br />The system is established to provide a means for <br />action that fulfills the beliefs or needs of a population. <br />There are three aspects to this construct. <br /> <br />I. The ideological aspect: belief in something <br />that has meaning for the believers. It may be <br />a quality of life factor, an aesthetic inleresl, <br />etc. <br /> <br />2. The awareness aspect: where a number of <br />people have an awareness of a common inter- <br />eSI, belief or need. <br /> <br />3. The struclural aspect: development of an or. <br />ganized system 10 express or take action to <br />achieve the common interests or beliefs. <br /> <br />These elemenls underly any decision or action system. <br /> <br />One of Ihe great difficulties in predicting human <br />behavior is in the problem of represenling Ihe subtle <br />and latent subjective elements that influence what <br /> <br />so <br />
The URL can be used to link to this page
Your browser does not support the video tag.