Laserfiche WebLink
<br />2. Positive factors: Controllable.- <br /> <br />a. Early detection. - A ,number of fortuitous events occurred to <br />facilitate early detection and warning. A knowledgeable observer and <br />an emergency telephone system combined to provide a report of flooding <br />as early as could be conceived with the existing conditions. The A-I <br />Trash collector was familiar with the area, knew something unusual was <br />happening, and knew where to go to call for help. If the truck driver <br />for A-I Trash had not been in the area (he was ahead of schedule that <br />day), or the emergency telephone nonexistent"the initial notification <br />to the Park Service Dispatch Center would have been delayed. <br /> <br />b. Multiple warnings. - Table 2 shows that more than one warning was <br />issued to the majority of facilities in the first 4 'miles downstream <br />from Cascade Dam (the portion of the flood plain in which the authors <br />conducted interviews). Research fi ndings ind icate that, "Persons do <br />not readily evacuate on the basis of the first warning received, and <br />the amount of warnings received thereafter is directly related to <br />evacuation" [25]. <br /> <br />c. Method of warning. - Nearly every motel or resort complex owner! <br />manager interviewed by the authors received a warning from a sheriff or <br />police officer. It has been shown in previous studies that "Warnings <br />from official sources encourage a more adaptive response than those <br />from unofficial sources" [8]. Many of the warnings were issued <br />face-to-face, and by telephone. Previous researchers have indicated <br />t~at warnings issued through such personal communication modes are more <br />effective than those received through impersonal modes [8]. <br /> <br />3. Negative factors: Not Controllable. - <br /> <br />a. Remote damsite. -Lawn Lake Dam ~~s miles from the nearest road and <br />not visible to anyone except hikers or campers in the immediate vicinity <br />of the dam. This contributed to the delay in detecting the dam failure. <br /> <br />b. Elderly population. - There was a significant elderly population in <br />the affected area. At one motel, which was totally devastated, more <br />than one-half of the 60 guests were over 60 years old. Previous <br />studies have shown that older persons are less likely than the young to <br />receive warnings regardless of the warning source and are less likely <br />to take protective action [15, 19]. <br /> <br />c. Jurisdiction. - The multiple political jurisdictions (i.e., Rocky <br />Mountain National Park, unincorporated Larimer County, and the town of <br />Estes Park) within the threatened area could have led to warnings or <br />evacuation orders being delayed or misinterpreted. Unless careful <br />attention is paid to communication and coordination, the existance of <br />multiple jurisdictions greatly increases the potential for delay and <br />dissemination of conflicting information. <br /> <br />8 <br />