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<br />" , <br /> <br />1. Positive factors: Not controllable. - The success of the warning and <br />evacuation was promoted by a number of factors not generally under public <br />management. It is important to appreciate the contribution of these <br />factors to avoid overestimating the chances for similar success in other <br />dam failure situations. <br /> <br />a. Time of day. - The time of day was very near optimal. Failure <br />during daylight hours resulted in its early detection and made it <br />easier for flood plain occupants to evacuate. Many families were still <br />together; highways and downtown Estes Park were much less crowded than <br />they would have been a few hours later. National Park Service, Larimer <br />County, and town of Estes Park personnel were available with minimal <br />delay at this time of day. Most people were awake and alert, which <br />they would not have been had the failure occurred a 'few hours earlier. <br />Estes Park radio station KSIR was on the air. In July, normal broad- <br />casting hours are 6 a.m. to 8:30 p.m. <br /> <br />b. Weather. - Clear 'a'nd dry weather was a positive factor. The low <br />temperature recorded at Estes Park the morning of July 15 was 40 of <br />and the high was 84 of later in the day. <br /> <br />c. Topography. - Loud, turbulent flow on Roaring River allowed the <br />flood to be detected from a distance. Uninhabited Horseshoe Park <br />slowed the movement of the flood wave somewhat, giving officials <br />additional time to judge the magnitude of the event and prepare to <br />warn the public. <br /> <br />.' <br />d. Communications. - Having a single radio station in Estes Park also <br />helped. People received only one message if they were listening to the <br />radio and for the most part the station was providing the same infor- <br />mation that law inforcement officials'were giving in person. Telephone <br />communication also remained in operation. <br /> <br />e. Building type. - The "clustered" residences (e.g., motels, cottages) <br />aided in an effective evacuation. 'Authorities only had to contact the <br />owners or managers of the facilities who then contacted guests. The <br />owners and managers were extremely prompt and effective in evacuating <br />people from their facilities. <br /> <br />f. Flood awareness. - Previous experience with the flash flood in the <br />nearby Big Thompson Canyon in 1976 probably enabled more efficient <br />warnings and evacuation orders being issued and a more appropriate <br />response among the people in the path of the floodwaters. Many of the <br />people interviewed on July 19 and 20 stated that the Big Thompson <br />flood had made them flood conscious, and some had thought about how to <br />respond in the event of flooding. Signs placed in the canyons along <br />the Front Range of Colorado stating, "Climb to Safety in Case of Flash <br />Flood" may have prompted a conscious or unconscious response among some <br />of the flood plain occupants. <br /> <br />7 <br />