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Agenda Item 9p May 24-25,1999 Board Meeting Page 2 00 In addition to AOP discussions at the May meeting, Reclamation also provided a brief overview of the process for developing the interim surplus\shortage guidelines for Colorado River reservoirs which will be discussed in a separate memorandum as part of the Upper Colorado River Commissioner's report. . Discussion In 1999, the rWloffforecast has been below average and would not have supported a surplus declaration a significant amoWlt of time as shown in the attached table provided by Wayne Cook. Forecast April- July Percent of "70R" Data Volume Normal Sumlus January 15 5.2 maf 67 percent - 800 kaf February 4 6.7 maf 84 percent +700 kaf March 4 6.5 maf 84 percent +500 kaf March 31 5.7 maf 74 percent - 300 kaf April 7 4.8 maf 62 percent - 1.20 maf April 15 5.0 maf 65 percent - 1.00 maf May 3 6.5 maf 84 percent +500 kaf May 10 7.0 maf 90 percent +1.00 maf As a result, we need to watch the rWloffforecast over the next three months very closely. If the forecast drops below 80 percent, it would not be appropriate to declare a surplus in the year 2000 AOP. Under conditions as of May 10th, all CRSP reservoirs would be expected to fill except for Navajo (about 10 feet in elevation short of full) and Glen Canyon (about 8 to 9 feet in elevation short of full). The decree accoWlting in the lower basin shows 7.6 maf of consumptive use in 1998 and 8.0 maf of consumptive use is projected to occur in 1999. Flood control releases were made in January, February and March of 1999 and the latest forecast would cause flood control releases in January, February and March of2000 and even in 2001 Wlder normal conditions. Deliveries to Mexico would total 1.7 maf in 2000 if a surplus is declared. . The upper basin states expressed concern that releases exceeded downstream demands by 400,000 af in January 1999 when the forecast did not justify any flood control releases and as a result, no surplus was available. Reclamation indicated that it takes about 10- days to notice everyone that surplus is not available and in this particular instance it would have caused significant problems for power interests. We would also note that the forecast improved in February to the point of justifying further surplus releases. California expressed continued concern that flood control releases were not the appropriate criteria to use for determining surplus and argued for a "70A" strategy (70% avoidance of spills from Lake Mead) which is much more favorable to the lower basin and the declaration of surplus. .