BOARD01350

• Board Meeting Date: 1/24/2006
• Description: WSP Section - Colorado River Issues - Development of Opearations for Lakes Powell and Mead under Low Reservoir Conditions, including the Development of Lower Basin Shortage Criteria
• Board Meetings - Doc Type: Memo

Modeling of Reservoir Management Strategies
for Lakes Powell and Mead

. Figure 4-20 shows the probability of Lake Powell dropping below 3570 fl. This probability is 100\lest
under Hybrid rev2. After 2014 this probability is highest under Hybrid revl. The maximum difTerence
between these two strategies is about 9%.

Figure 4-21
I)robability of Lake :\ole-ad Ele-ntion Below 1120

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Figure 4-21 shows the probability of Lake Mead dropping below 1120 fl. The effecl of the Hybrid
strategies is almost indistinguishable. A small reduction (about 2%) is observed in 2009 with the Hybrid
strategies compared to the Nomm\.

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34

Working Draft. Version 2. January. 2006