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Last modified
7/28/2009 2:28:02 PM
Creation date
10/1/2006 2:13:54 PM
Metadata
Fields
Template:
Weather Modification
Contract/Permit #
#90-3
Applicant
Western Kansas Groundwater
Project Name
Kansas Weather Modification
Date
6/1/1990
Weather Modification - Doc Type
Public Hearing
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<br />=') <br /> <br />" . <br />. , C'-~ <br /> <br />.~. '.. ,~>~ ,;;, <br /> <br />~) <br /> <br />REOBIVlD <br /> <br />NEWSLETTER 90 - 5 <br /> <br />JUN 0 7 '90 <br /> <br />\JOLOHAOO WATfR <br />FOR THE WEEK MAY 26 - JUNE 1. 1990 CON8!RVAnON <br />BOARD <br />GENERAL INTEREST: We oontinue with the second part of the summary of <br />the American Meteorlogical Society's, February issue of the BULL~TIN <br />in which the American Assooiation of State Climatologists <AASC) <br />presented an article accompanied by a statement pertaining to climatic <br />means and normals. The statement addressed: tl) the appropriate use of <br />the word "normal" as applied to meteorological events likes rainfall, <br />snowfall and temperature, (2) whether the general use of the 30-year <br />average is appropriate and (3) the importance of other climatic <br />descriptors, such as median, standard deviation, percentile, etc. <br /> <br />Researchers have found in some applications <especially precipita- <br />tion) the commonly used 30-year average, or "normal" for stations show <br />no apecial predictive properties ot future olil~te. In fact, using <br />such numbers has been found to have less predictive skill than do <br />"normals" ot other time periods. D"'pendill8 Oll g",ogf"aphic location, <br />researchers have found different averging periods wor-k better than <br />others for different places. It has been found that the best results <br />are obtained fOr averaging periods generally running from 10 to 20 <br />years in length. There is agreement among researchers that the <br />:iO-year, long-term average, is not optimum, howaver, they caonClt agree <br />among themselves what should replace it. <br /> <br />These findings seem to tell uS that when one attempt5 "lo compare <br />pravious long-term <30-year) raint..11 l:\ven"ges to futm-e rainfall over <br />a predetermined length, the results are a~t to be unrepresentative... <br />interesting maybe, but not necessarily meaninsful or accurate. <br /> <br />Where does that leave those of us that insist on believing it is <br />somehow a "natural right" to e){pect a given amount of: rainfall over <br />some partioular time period? Dismayed maybe, or pleasantly surprised, <br />or looking for some simplistic reason <or SGt<p8goat) to explain the <br />phenomenon, whatever it is---whether too much or too little. Are we <br />askng too" much of nature to exp6ct, ClI" uellland, som'" kind of blind <br />regularity from it'? ihe answer 1:;; yes. Will we eVel" be able to <br />totally predict natural variability of rainfall'? That answer, most <br />likely, is no---but we'11 keep trying because we think we ruight get <br />better at it than we are now. <br /> <br />We should keep in mind, within those counties supporting the <br />weather modification progrO\lli, W8 tl""Y to incr",,,,..e rainfall during <br />moisture deficit times over moisture deficit areas. Because of"the <br />irregularity and variability of rainfall, we II:no~( we cannot expect to <br />perform any definite, pre-determined statistical inorease in preoipi- <br />tatiClll from each cloud---each cloud may range all the way from having <br />little or no effect, t6 several hunureub pel~ent increase. Instead, <br />with cloud seeding we strive to maximize the amount of u5able precipi- <br />tation from the clouds nature gives U5 to work with an let evaluators <br />struggle to find ways to accurately represent our work to the public. <br /> <br />OPERATIONS: LClW level and mid-level winds were from the E and SE for <br />most of the week. These winds brought abundant moisture to Western <br />Kansas setting the stage for the significant rainfall episode that <br />occurred on the 29th. Fair weather set in after a cold front pa55ed <br />through the region on the evening of Friday. June 1st. Observation <br />
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