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<br />For the 8-14 day forecast, Mr. Glancy predicted above normal temperatures on the plains--dry <br />and windy. <br /> <br />Long-term Weather Outlook <br /> <br />Klaus Wolter. NOAA Climate Diagnostic Center <br /> <br />Mr. Wolter stated it has not been too wet since the end of November. He said the forecast for <br />mid-December through March appears mixed and uncertain at this time. Mr. Wolter predicted it <br />would be dry on the eastern plains and possible above normal precipitation over the north and <br />central mountains for his January through March forecast. For April through June's forecast, he <br />predicted dry in Colorado especially the eastern part of Colorado, and said if El Nino stays with <br />us, a wet spring is possible. <br /> <br />The following executive summary from Klaus Wolter has been added to the minutes: <br /> <br />E,xectttlve Sun_uI1~u:y (JanUaI)f 18,2.0(5) <br /> <br />1. The 2004-05 El Nino event continues to limp along, with large-scale SST anomalies that <br />barely exceed lC (2F). Nevertheless, quite a few global and regional precipitation anomalies <br />have been consistent with typical El Nino-associations (for instance, a failed summer monsoon in <br />India, a dry fall in Indonesia, and a wet (dry) fall in the southwestern (northwestern) U.S.). <br /> <br />2. After a wet summer and fall in the eastern half of Colorado (western Colorado only caught up <br />in the fall), our snowpack has been flirting with "normal" values over the last months, a welcome <br />change compared to recent years. Of course, this recovery is a far cry from the almost biblical <br />precipitation events recorded over Utah and points southwest this fall. Meanwhile, the expected <br />early-winter dry spells appear to recur regularly, and are on tap yet again for the next two weeks. <br /> <br />3. In my experimental forecasts for Jan-Mar '05, the odds for above-normal precipitation reach <br />significant levels only over the north-central mountains of Colorado, while weaker reverse odds <br />apply to northern Utah and east Colorado. The wet forecast for north-central Colorado is <br />considered more reliable than other forecasts. A first look at the subsequent spring season <br />(April-June) continues the recent tendency towards wet conditions in New Mexico, but raises the <br />possibility of renewed dry spells in southwest Utah and eastern Colorado. <br /> <br />4. Bottomline: El Nino has returned to the Pacific, but is weaker than many historic events, and <br />appears to focus on the central rather than the eastern basin. Its recent influence on our climate is <br />debatable. In fact, my "wet" forecast for the north-central mountains of Colorado is not directly <br />driven by the El Nino, but eastern Pacific SST developments largely independent of it. If the <br />current El Nino event does not fade away too soon, the currently mixed odds for a wet spring <br />would improve for both Utah and Colorado <br />