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<br />Soil Moisture Analog vs. Moderate El Nifio "Forecasts" <br /> <br />Lagged Averaged Temperature Outlook for OND 2004 <br />units: onomaly (sdX100), SM dota ending at 20040919 <br /> <br />,~ <br /> <br /> <br />.~ <br /> <br />.~ <br /> <br />,~ <br /> <br />,~ <br /> <br />,.. <br /> <br />12~W <br /> <br />.... <br /> <br />... <br /> <br />- <br />-16Q.\4\)12\)100-8O_60_40_20 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 <br /> <br />Lagge<l Averoge<l Precipitotion Outlook for OND 2004 <br />unils: anomoly (sdX100), SM doto ending at 20040919 <br /> <br />,~ <br /> <br /> <br />.~ <br /> <br />.~ <br /> <br />,~ <br /> <br />,~ <br /> <br />,.. <br /> <br />12DW <br /> <br />.... <br /> <br />". <br /> <br />-16Q.14Q.12Q.10O-BO_60_40_2020 40 60 ao 100120140160 <br /> <br />Composite Percent of Normal Precipitation 1950-1995 <br />Oct to Dee 19~.196J.1969.1917.1979.,ga6.1990.1994.2002 <br /> <br /> <br />~ <br /> <br /> <br />I'\iOAA-CIR{S/Climate Di09~tic. c....t.. <br /> <br /> <br />50 <br /> <br />70 <br /> <br />90 <br /> <br />110 <br /> <br />130 <br /> <br />150 <br /> <br />For Oct-Dec'04, both tools predict renewed wet conditions over eastern CO, with the <br />caveat that historical skill is weaker with moderate EI Ninos than with stronger ones. <br />