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<br />I~,xecllti ''i/e S Un1fllar y (2() SI~I)"rI~.?vl}3I:.l~2()()5) <br /> <br />1. The weak 2004-05 EI Nino event faded unceremoniously away this <br />summer. Recent climate anomalies in the equatorial Pacific are best <br />described as ENSO-neutral, with little change expected for the next several <br />months. <br /> <br />2. The summer monsoon arrived late, and appears to have waned early in <br />much of the region. While the overall weakness of the monsoon was <br />predicted for Arizona, western Utah, and the northern Front Range in <br />Colorado, this outcome was not anticipated over southeastern Colorado <br />(hurting dry-land farming in particular). The general dryness also allowed for <br />a relatively hot summer across eastern Colorado. <br /> <br />3. My experimental forecasts for the October-December 2005 season <br />indicate that the eastern third of the domain, including much of New Mexico <br />and eastern Colorado, is more likely to get a wet fall than not. However, only <br />the expected wetness from northeastern Colorado into southeast Wyoming <br />and the Nebraska panhandle is supported by recent good forecast <br />performance skill. Unfortunately, the dry forecast for Arizona is also <br />corroborated by recent forecast skill. My first forecast into late winter (JFM) <br />2006 shows continued dryness over Arizona (and NM), juxtaposed with <br />enhanced chances for moisture in northwest Utah and near-normal <br />expectations in the northern mountains of Colorado. However, probability <br />shifts are small this far in advance of winter. <br /> <br />4. Bottomline: EI Nino should not be a factor in this foreast cycle. At this <br />point, the outlook for the fall season is most favorable over northeastern <br />Colorado and eastern New Mexico, and least favorable for Arizona. The <br />initial outlook into winter is fraught with a lot of uncertainty, but does not <br />bode well for Arizona and New Mexico. <br />