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<br />San Juan/Dolores Basin <br />The SWSI value (+0.8) indicates that August water basin supplies were near nonnal. Flow at the <br />gaging station at Animas River near Durango was 545 cfs, as compared to the long-term average of <br />552 cfs. Storage in McPhee, Vallecito, and Lemon reservoir totaled 121 % of nonnal at the end of <br />August. <br /> <br />Short-term Forecasted Weather and Extended Outlook <br /> <br />Treste' Huse. National Weather Service. Short Term Weather Forecast <br />Ms. Huse stated that this July was very dry, and that August was wetter than usual. She said it was <br />dryer in the southeast and wet in the northwest part of the state. Ms. Huse forecasted a few <br />thunderstonns for this afternoon but nothing big. She said it would be cooler today, wanning up <br />through Saturday, and a little cooler on Sunday again with a disturbance moving through. <br /> <br />For the weekend forecast she predicted there would be a disturbance moving over on Saturday and <br />Sunday, but that the main threat would be the wind. Ms. Huse indicated that the wind is usually a <br />concern for fire danger in the higher elevations. <br /> <br />Ms. Huse stated the long-tenn forecast shows nothing for high moisture measure--mostly really dry. <br />She commented we would have average temperatures at DIA for the next 7-day forecast. Ms. Huse <br />predicted it would be dry September 10th through October 10th, and said usually nothing much <br />changes at this time of the year for Colorado. <br /> <br />Long-term Weather Outlook <br /> <br />Klaus Wolter. NOAA Climate Diagnostic Center. Long Term Weather Outlook <br /> <br />Mr. Wolter began his presentation with a review of the drought years, 2003 and the western United <br />States surrounding us, which did not have much recovery from the drought. He said that the 2003 <br />water year for Colorado was good, and the 2004 water year was good in the Front Range and in <br />southeast Colorado it was better. Mr. Wolter stated that last year his main concern was of the <br />Colorado River basin. He said conditions later indicated wetter soil in some parts showing some <br />recovery, but that some parts are not doing as well. Mr. Wolter believes the drought could still <br />recur. He stated it is difficult to predict the monsoon, but that he believes El Nino is gone. Mr. <br />Wolter commented we have had average conditions for a couple years, and that not much is going <br />on so he is not as concerned as he was last year. He mentioned there is not much change in looking <br />at ENSO for the next 8-9 months. Mr. Wolter said the analog forecast is better for summer <br />forecasts than winter forecasts. He also said it could be possible to have a long cold winter this <br />year. Mr. Wolter predicted that Colorado has a slight chance of a potential for wetter weather than <br />nonnal in October through December (5-10%); however, he stated that we don't nonnally get a lot <br />of moisture at that time of the year in Colorado. Additionally, Mr. Wolter said he predicted nonnal <br />weather from January through March for Colorado, and that he was predicting no El Nino for the <br />first time in years. Also, he commented that 2004 was a tough year to forecast and that the last El <br />Nino didn't deliver for Colorado. <br /> <br />The following executive summary from Klaus Wolter has been added to the minutes: <br />