PUB00029

• Year: 1997
• Title: Water for Tomorrow An Integrated Water Resource Plan
• Author: Denver Water
• Description: Water for Tomorrow An Integrated Water Resource Plan
• Publications - Doc Type: Water Resource Studies

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Water Usage Factors and the Demand Forecast Model

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Denver's demand forecasting model was originally developed as part of the Metropolitan
Denver Water Supply Environmental Impact Statement in the 1980s. Denver staff and
outside consultants engaged in extensi ve study of historical customer usage patterns to
estimate current and future usage factors. This permitted staff to develop an econometric
model to forecast future demands. Table IV-l presents the usage factors. The demand
model is displayed in Figure IV-3. For metered, single-family residential customers, the
model is much more informative and complex because of the additional data available
for this class of customers. The wealth of data leads to better predictive power. While
the model forecasts annual demands under average weather conditions, demand for
outdoor uses will vary with temperature, precipitation, and conservation achieved to
date.

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Table IV.I
Usage Factors
(at the meter)

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1990
Gross

2045 2045
Gross Net(2)

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Single-Family Household(1)
Multifamily Household
Commercial/Industrial
Public

508

538 447
217 180
45 35
14 14

Gallons per household/day
Gallons per household/day
Gallons per employee/day
Gallons per person/day

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{I)Composite result of single-family usage factors for lot size, marginal price, median family income,
and persons per household
")Net of Conservation and Natural Replacement

Although Denver Water has always encouraged efficient water use, 1980 marked the
start of rigorous efforts to promote water conservation. By the end of 1994 Denver
Water customers had saved approximately 30,000 acre-feet annually based upon the
decline in gallons per account per day. The effect of these savings was incorporated into
the demand forecast.

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