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<br />. <br /> <br /> Figure IV-3 <br />. Demand Model <br /> D= f*SFM + 630*SFF + 217*MF + 45*E + 14*P <br /> Metered Hat Rate Multi-Family Commercial Public <br /> Single-Family Residential Residential Industrial Sector <br />. Residential Sector <br /> Where: SFM = Metered Single-Family Households <br /> SFF = Unmelered Single-FamilY Households <br /> MF = Multi-Family Households <br /> E = Employment <br />. P = Population <br /> R' = 0.998 <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />Single-Family Residential <br />Metered Demand <br />(gaJJlIHlday) <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />f = 478 + 427(A - A avg) - 141(mP - mP avg) + 6(1 - I avg) + 39.4(pIHH - plHH avg) <br /> <br />Where: <br /> <br />A = Lot Area (Acres) <br />mP = Marginal Price of Watel <br />I = Median Family Income (Thousands) <br />p/HH = PersonsIHousehold <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />As a result of legal and regulatory changes as well as advances in technology, it can be <br />anticipated that usage factors will decline in the future. This phenomenon is referred to <br />as "natural replacement"; it occurs, for example, when a customer buys a low-flow toilet <br />to replace one of higher flows. This reduction in water consumption is independent of <br />any conservation programs implemented by Denver Water. Since future natural <br />replacement is not captured in the demand model, staff reduced the model-predicted <br />2045 demand line by about 25,000 acre-feet per year to account for this phenomenon. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />Additional Denver Build-Out Requirements <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />There are several major new developments in the City of Denver that are not fully <br />reflected in DRCOG's 2020 forecasts. As an example, significant growth is expected in <br />the vicinity of Denver's new international airport as well as at the redeveloping Stapleton <br />Airport site. Those demands, which are shown in Table IV-2, must be added to the <br />model predictions. This adds another 15,000 acre-feet per year of demand to the forecast <br />in 2045. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />29 <br />