Weather Mod Report - 1977

• Project Type: General OWC
• Project Name: Weather Modification
• Title: "What Should Colorado Be Doing in Weather Modification"
• Date: 11/9/1977
• County: Statewide
• Water Conservation - Doc Type: Final Report

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There are other important environmental factors involved in ways of
reducing the error of estimate. In a study of hydrological methods
for evaluation, Kahan (1977) considers both target-control and seed-
non-seed' methods. By the former,,' runoff...from seeded ranges into target
basins is compared with runoff from unseeded ranges into control basins,
the dependence of target on control being determined either from
historical data or from data accumulated during seasons selected at
random for suspension of seeding. By the latter method, the history of
the target basin during unseeded season, either historical or selected
at random from the demonstration period for nonseeding, provide the
eontrol.

In the meantime, methods for relating the amount of precipitation to
measures of the character and intensity of storms affecting the area are
attaining greater and greater applicability. Consideration is likely to
be given to reducing the error of estimate in either of the two methods
just mentioned by using storm-characteristic parameters, worked into a
model for prediction of seasonal snowpack, to provide a year-by-year estimate
of unseeded-year runoff that will be substantially more accurate than
could be got by simply using the mean of unseeded years of record. Such
~ scheme might be incorporated in the Demonstration Project, but not unti~
lt has been more thoroughly tested. ~.

The fourth cornerstone is a just and workable means for compensating
citizens disbenefitted by actions taken for the public welfare. The basis
is simple and strong: a citizen shall not be deprived of property without
due process. However, it may be complex and difficult in realization.
Even in the few cases so far brought to court, outlandish and untenable
claims of damage have been brought. The problem of distinguishing between
meritorious cases and preposterous ones has not yet been addressed, much
less solved. Experience suggests tl1at case law will be a slow, expensive,
disorderly, and unreliable approach; judges and juries often treat
scientific evidence in a very capricious manner. Legislative definition
of compensable damage is more likely to be satisfactory. An organic law
establishing the necessary principles, administered by a Basin-wide
interstate commission with power to promulgate suitable regulations --
and to change them as conditions change -- would seem to be an acceptable
way to go about it.

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My own opinion is that every citizen should be expected to cope with the
ordinary vagaries of the weather, and that only those events that are both
clearly outside the normal expectation and reasonably likely to have been
aggravated by cloud seeding should be allowed as the basis for claims.
Even these claims should be hedged by existing doctrine: for example, an
auto accident in a seeded snowstorm should not be grounds for a valid
claim if the driver had a clear chance of avoiding it.

Why should the State undertake a long-range program of precipitation
stimulation? Should it not be left to others? The reasons are simple:
the State is a major stakeholder; and others face obstacles, some quite
daunting. State sovereignty can surmount two of these obstacles: it can

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