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<br />u...1 <br /> <br />were converted to cropland. Other impacts are considered minor. <br /> <br />Impacts of snowpack augmentation on the structure and functioning <br />of societal institutions were not identified. The societal workshop was <br />interested, rather, in the impacts of society on the research program. <br /> <br />After exhaustive inquiry, it was concluded that seeding agents, silver <br />iodide in particular, will have no effect on the environment, adverse or <br />otherwise. <br /> <br />In summary, it is unlikely that precipi~tion augmentation programs will <br />have any identifiable short-or medium-term effect on the natural environ- <br />ment except for an as yet unknown degree of extension in the extent and <br />duration of late-lying snow in limited areas of accumulation. Nonitoring <br />of this element would undoubtedly be a part of a Colorado policy. <br /> <br />~ <br />. <br /> <br />The question remains unanswered, what would be the impact on the natural <br />environment if the precipitation augmentation should result in <br />continuing snowpack augmentation in the Upper Colorado Basin over a period <br />of many decades or centuries. Would this trigger large changes in the <br />environment? The consensual answer is no. It was noted that the pertinent <br />aspects in the so-called balance of nature are anything but delicate, and that <br />biological systems occupying this area are extremely robust and resilient, <br />adapting to past climatic changes by adjustments in the boundaries of <br />the various life zones without apparent large-scale upsets. <br /> <br />the <br /> <br />The second cornerstone is standby authorization to act promptly and <br />effectively in beginning or ending a cloud-seeding program whenever a <br />specified level of need arises. These are essentially administrative <br />actions, and should not be confused with legislative deliberations, <br />which are too slow. Legislative deliberation has its place in formulating <br />the organic law under which weather modification is authorized, giving <br />all stakeholders and concerned bystanders the hearing they should have <br />and will eventually get, outside the system if not within it. But the <br />legislation should establish the authority and the funding resources <br />within the administrative branch of government to carry out the intent <br />of the law expeditiously at the appropriate time. <br /> <br />/~e third cornerstone is cumulative ~ssessment of the value of the 1?rogram. <br />~' ~ succession of emergency cloud-seed1ng programs threatens to polar1ze <br />citizens pro or con and provides no rational basis for re:olution of.t~e <br />conflicting opinions. Although we recognize that evaluatlOn of preC1plta- <br />tiCD stimulation operations of the sort we are talking about cannot be <br />expected to provide exact answers, and can do no better than reco~mend <br />alternative outcomes in probabilistic terms, this sort of evaluat10n 1S <br />still greatly to be preferred to no evaluation at all. It has been tru~y <br />said (e.g. Hans Bethe) that few political propositions ~n~ fe~er econom1C <br />propositions have as good as a 70 percent chanse of ver1f1cat1on. An <br />evaluation that can support 7 out af 10 odds for one outcome or another <br />is potentially a very valuable decisionmaking. instrument. <br /> <br />5 <br />