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to remove much of the temporal variability in runoff. <br />The problem is that this design is very difficult to apply <br />in larger watersheds, as it is nearly impossible to find two <br />large basins where one basin can serve as an untreated <br />control and the other basin can be subjected to treatment. <br />An extensive search across several states was needed to <br />find a 2,200 -acre control basin and an adjacent unhar- <br />vested basin that could be used to test the effects of forest <br />management on runoff at an operational scale (Troendle <br />and Nankervis, 2000). The resulting Coon Creek study <br />did show that the hydrologic effects of forest manage- <br />ment on a 6.5 mil basin were directly comparable to the <br />results from much smaller basins (Troendle et al., 2001). <br />Results from even larger basins are scarce and not as de- <br />finitive, as one has to rely on natural disturbances in an <br />uncontrolled experimental design. Love (1955) claimed <br />to detect a two -inch increase in streamflow as a result of <br />extensive beetle kill in the 762 mil White River basin, <br />but his results were contested by Bue et al. (1955). A <br />later study used a different, somewhat unconventional <br />procedure to detect the changes in flow caused by beetle <br />kill in both the White River and the Yampa River, and <br />this claimed that water yields increased by about 10% <br />relative to the Elk River basin ( Bethlahmy, 1974). The <br />increases claimed by Love (1955) and Bethlahmy (1974) <br />are consistent with the results obtained on much smaller <br />basins, and support the view that the changes in runoff <br />measured on small experimental basins can be scaled up <br />to much larger basins. <br />The other factor that greatly affects the detectability of <br />change is the closeness of the relationship between the <br />control and treated basins, or the consistency of the data <br />before and after treatment if observations are limited to a <br />single basin (Loftis et al., 2001). Typically there is a rela- <br />tively high correlation between paired basins for annual <br />water yields, and a strong correlation was essential to <br />detecting a change in annual water yields at Coon Creek <br />because there were only five years of calibration data and <br />five years of post - treatment data (Troendle et al., 2001). <br />The correlation in the size of peak flows between paired <br />basins is usually not as strong, and this makes it more <br />difficult to detect the effect of a given treatment on the <br />size of peak flows. In the case of the Coon Creek experi- <br />ment, it was not possible to detect a change in the size of <br />the average annual maximum peak flow, even though the <br />snowpack data and results from other studies indicated <br />that there probably was an increase (Section 2.2.5). The <br />detection of a significant change over time at a single <br />stream gauging station is much more difficult because <br />there is almost always more unexplained variability rela- <br />tive to a paired- watershed design (Loftis et al., 2001). <br />Taken together, these issues mean that one gener- <br />ally should not expect to measure significant changes <br />in runoff in larger watersheds as a result of typical for- <br />est management activities. Field research, hydrologic <br />theory, and modeling studies all indicate that a change <br />in forest cover will affect streamflows, particularly at <br />higher elevations where there is more precipitation and <br />hence a greater potential to alter interception and tran- <br />spiration. The resulting changes in runoff will be trans- <br />mitted downstream, but with increasing drainage area <br />the changes from a given set of activities will become <br />proportionally smaller. The opportunity to generate a <br />detectable change in runoff in larger basins also may be <br />limited by the amount of area that can be treated within <br />a relatively short time period and the intensity of the ap- <br />plied treatments (e.g., thinning as opposed to clearcut- <br />ting) (Hibbert, 1979; Ponce and Meiman, 1983). High - <br />severity fires are the primary exception to these general <br />principles, as both the change in runoff and the size of <br />the affected area can be relatively large. <br />These limitations in detecting change do not mean that <br />changes in runoff won't occur in larger basins, or that <br />there is no opportunity to alter runoff through forest <br />management. Changes in runoff will occur with changes <br />in the forest canopy, and a small percentage change im- <br />posed on a large area can equate to a large amount of <br />water in absolute terms. The difficulty is that we cannot <br />expect to measure these changes, so the effect of changes <br />in forest management on runoff at lager scales will usu- <br />ally have to be quantified through hydrologic models, <br />and presumed to be present even though the changes <br />may not be statistically detectable at existing gauging <br />stations. <br />In conclusion, this chapter has summarized the type <br />and magnitude of changes in runoff that can occur as a <br />result of management actions and wildfires in forested <br />areas. The process -based understanding provided in this <br />chapter is necessary for predicting future changes, as <br />the hydrologic effect of a given action or disturbance <br />depends on a large number of site - specific factors and <br />will vary with changing climatic and site conditions. The <br />next chapter reviews the effects of forest management, or <br />the absence of forest management, on water quality. This <br />is followed by an assessment of the historic changes in <br />forest vegetation in Colorado and the estimated impact <br />of the changes in vegetation on runoff. <br />20 <br />