Summary Report ‎(Working Draft)‎ Modeling of Reservoir Management Strategies for Lakes Powell and Mead December 2005

• Description: Summary Report ‎(Working Draft)‎ Modeling of Reservoir Management Strategies for Lakes Powell and Mead December 2005
• State: CO
• Title: Summary Report ‎(Working Draft)‎ Modeling of Reservoir Management Strategies for Lakes Powell and Mead December 2005
• Water Supply Pro - Doc Type: Meeting

Modeling Results for
Colorado River Basin States' Modeling of
Colorado River and Reservoir Management Strategies
3.0 Modeling Results
The Colorado River Simulation System (CRSS) is Reclamation's long -term
planning and operations model for the Colorado River. Modeling results
presented in this report were generated using CRSS -Lite — a model developed to
mimic the operations of CRSS from Lake Powell downstream.
Due to the high uncertainty of future hydrology, CRSS -Lite was operated in
multiple -run mode using the Index Sequential Method (ISM) to evaluate
operations over a range of potential future inflows. As a result, a range of
potential outcomes was generated for each model output (i.e. reservoir elevation)
and analyzed using probability and statistics. Refer to Appendix A for further
explanation of ISM and probabilistic output.
The modeling results of three strategies were selected for presentation in this
section. Results are shown for the following strategies:
Normal:
combines normal operations at Powell (see
Appendix C) with the shortage strategy Step
Shortage Original
Hybrid:
combines the Hybrid Original strategy with the
shortage strategy Step Shortage Original
Hybrid revl:
combines the Hybrid revl strategy with the shortage
strategy Step Shortage rev
Note that the Hybrid revl strategy is combined with the Step Shortage revl
strategy instead of Step Shortage Original. This combination was chosen so that
balancing releases from Powell are not made before a shortage is triggered.
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