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IP <br />Modeling Results for <br />Colorado River Basin States' Modeling of <br />Colorado River and Reservoir Management Strategies <br />3.1 Elevation Percentiles <br />3.1.1 Powell 10th and 50th Percentiles <br />3,660 <br />3,640 <br />3,620 <br />m <br />w <br />a 3,600 <br />w <br />m <br />i 3,680 <br />a <br />Yq <br />J <br />3,660 <br />3,540 <br />3,620 <br />2006 <br />Figure 3 -1 <br />Lake Powell 10th and 50th Percentile Elevations <br />50th Percentiles <br />—B— Normal - Step Shortage Original <br />—6 Hybrid - Step Short Original <br />—6— Hybrid Rev1 - Step Short Rev1 <br />10th Percentiles <br />2010 2015 2020 2025 <br />Calendar Year <br />Figure 3 -1 shows the 10th and 501'' percentiles for Powell elevation under the three <br />operational strategies. At the 50th percentile, Powell would be somewhat higher <br />under normal operations as compared to the Hybrids because the Hybrid <br />strategies tend to move water to balance contents with Mead. Hybrid rev triggers <br />balancing earlier (1100 ft in Mead) which causes Powell to decline further. <br />Initially, Powell benefits from the Hybrid strategies at the lower elevations (10th <br />percentile) because 7.48 MAF is released instead of the 8.23 MAF minimum <br />objective. The effects of balancing begin to take over after 2013 which results in <br />slightly lower Powell elevations. <br />7 <br />