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Differences in Distribution of Monthly Flows, South Platte River below Julesburg, <br />under the Four Modeled Scenarios <br />FWS developed a revised monthly time-series of South Platte River flows reaching <br />Julesburg for input into the Opstudy model to evaluate Program Alternatives 2A and 2B. <br />This revised time-series was created by: <br />¦ Aggregating Hydrosphere's daily estimates of flow reductions resulting from the <br />development of (1) native South Platte storage and (2) re-use of reusable return flows <br />in Colorado; and <br />¦ Adjusting for Colorado's commitment to maintain long-term average monthly flows <br />at Julesburg, with annual accretions from new development re-timed as necessary <br />(Tamarack II) to offset, on average, net depletions occurring in any month. <br />Monthly streamflow crossing the state line is further affected by the re-regulatory <br />activities at Tamarack I and III, retiming flows from periods of excess-to-targets to <br />periods of shortage. <br />The aggregate effects of these changes on flow at the state line, as output of the <br />Opstudy model, are shown below for two representative months (January and May) <br />under the four modeled scenarios. January is representative of the aggregate effects <br />during winter months. Under Program Alternative #2, re-regulatory operations of <br />Tamarack I and III often reduce total streamflow relative to Present Conditions. Some or <br />all of this reduction is offset under Program Alternatives #2A and #2B because January is <br />a month of net accretions to flow associated with Colorado's anticipated mix of new <br />water supply sources. <br />January streamflow, South Platte at Julesburg <br />120 _ 100 - I <br />? 80 - I <br />? I <br />E 60 - ' <br />m , <br />L <br />w <br />U) <br />? 40 ' <br />.. <br />0 <br />f- <br />20 <br />O <br />0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 <br />Ranked Years <br />w- PC PA #2 PA #2A PA #2B