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<br />The computable general equilibrium model (CGE) analyzes resource reallocations (e.g., <br />changes in river flows as represented by increased or decreased hydroelectric generation) in a <br />manner such that the net effects, not just the total effects, are calculated, Given this <br />capability, the CGE is able to estimate net national efficiency impacts at the national level. <br /> <br />National economic efficiency effects refer to the overall net effects on the national economy <br />after the effects of interregional transfers have been accounted for. The goal of a national <br />efficiency analysis is to determine whether a proposed action would have an overall positive <br />or negative impact on the national economy. National economic efficiency impacts were <br />analyzed in this study using a CGE model. The model captures the economic interactions of <br />consumers, the production sectors, and the government sectors. <br /> <br />THE MODELING APPROACH <br /> <br />A set of input-output (1-0) models was developed as part of a staged investigation, where <br />each was stage developed to address a particular issue. During the initial stage, a separate <br />1-0 model was developed for each of the States in the affected region: Arizona, California, <br />Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming. These models focused on the impacts <br />that are generated by species listing and proposed critical habitat designation within each <br />individual State. <br /> <br />In most cases, impacts in a given State generated impacts in neighboring States. Thus, it was <br />necessary to investigate potential by offsetting impacts. As a result, a second model was <br />constructed which investigated the impacts of the entire region (all seven States included), <br />The first two model stages provide estimates of the State and regional-level economic <br />impacts. <br /> <br />The third stage involved the development of a CGE model for the economies of the <br />seven-State area and the rest of the U.S. This model provides a comprehensive aggregate <br />assessment of the national economic efficiency impacts. <br /> <br />Without Fish and With Fish Scenarios <br /> <br />Without Fish Scenario <br /> <br />The without fish economic scenario analyzed in this study consists of projections, over the <br />study period, of the level of economic activities that would be observed if no action were <br />taken to recover the endangered fishes. The study period of analysis chosen to reflect the <br />recovery projections for the endangered fishes was 1989 through 2020. Economic activity <br />under the without fish scenario was estimated using Impact Analysis for Planning (IMPLAN) <br />1982 Qata sets updated and projected through the year 2020 using data from the Bureau of <br />Economic Analysis of the U.S. Department of Commerce. These economic projections <br />formed the without fish scenario for determining the impacts due to proposed critical habitat. <br /> <br />21 <br />